Defensive solidity is the headline for this encounter. Viktoriya Mykolaivka have kept just 0.58 goals per game at home against teams of similar strength, while Nyva Ternopil concedes 1.14 away. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 49 % chance, a 30 % chance of a draw and a 21 % chance of an away victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, with a 14.4 % probability.
Viktoriya’s recent form is a four-game winning streak, their last win 2-1 over Kulykiv, while Nyva come off a 2-1 victory over Inhulets. Against comparable opposition, Viktoriya average 1.58 goals scored and 0.58 conceded; Nyva average 1.0 scored and 1.14 conceded.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0 %), Home +2 handicap (93.2 %) and Under 4.5 (93.1 %).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.64
0.79
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.08
1.64
0.64
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.77
1.15
0.82
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.18
1.00
1.22
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.3%
No
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.9%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.7%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals ↓
Nyva Ternopil goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.1%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
8.5%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.7%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals (down), columns = Nyva Ternopil goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Viktoriya Mykolaivka is 1.80 points better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Viktoriya Mykolaivka is 0.80 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Viktoriya Mykolaivka is 0.80 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Viktoriya Mykolaivka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka or Nyva Ternopil
69.4%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Viktoriya Mykolaivka + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
51.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Draw + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Viktoriya Mykolaivka, so a minus line means Viktoriya Mykolaivka give that many goals of a start and Nyva Ternopil receive them. At -1, Viktoriya Mykolaivka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Viktoriya Mykolaivka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Viktoriya Mykolaivka)
Viktoriya Mykolaivka -2
8.8%
Draw -2
14.9%
Nyva Ternopil +2
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Viktoriya Mykolaivka)
Viktoriya Mykolaivka -1
23.6%
Draw -1
24.5%
Nyva Ternopil +1
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Viktoriya Mykolaivka)
Viktoriya Mykolaivka +1
78.8%
Draw +1
14.2%
Nyva Ternopil -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Viktoriya Mykolaivka)
Viktoriya Mykolaivka +2
93.0%
Draw +2
5.4%
Nyva Ternopil -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.21
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.18
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.54
0.31
0.18
0.35
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.32
0.78
0.22
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.21
0.57
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.62
1.18
0.45
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.23
0.85
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.86
0.22
1.00
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Nyva Ternopil have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Nyva Ternopil have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Nyva Ternopil have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Nyva Ternopil have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →