Villarreal vs Alaves Result & Analysis

Villarreal, enjoying a strong home record against weaker opponents, faces Alaves, who have struggled on the road to stronger teams. The model therefore names a home win as the clear favourite, with a 67% chance, compared to 20% for a draw and 13% for an away victory. The expected total of 3.1 goals falls near the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, a 22% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0 for Villarreal, with an 11% probability. Villarreal’s home form shows 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game, while Alaves’ away form shows 1.0 scored and 2.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.5%, Under 10.5 corners at 74.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 70.6%, and Over 1.5 at 82.6%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.

The win extends Villarreal’s recent run, as they beat Alaves 3-1 to secure a home victory. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 67% probability, and that call proved correct. The match’s final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s prediction. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.6%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 83.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 83.0%, Over 1.5 hit at 82.6%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 74.6%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.0%, and Over 23.5 fouls hit at 70.6%. Only Over 2.5 cards missed, with an 81.5% chance. The model’s picks largely came through, underscoring its accuracy for this fixture.