Villarreal vs Alaves Result & Analysis

Villarreal’s recent dip, losing their last match to Alaves, sets the stage for a home win that the model deems most likely, with a 61% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of an Alaves win. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most probable total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model predicts most accurately is 2-0 for Villarreal, with an 11.5% chance. Home side Villarreal, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Alaves, on the road against a stronger side, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 92.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.1%, Over 23.5 fouls at 73.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.8% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.3%. These picks reflect the high likelihood of a vigorous, goal-laden contest.

The match saw Villarreal extend their recent run, bouncing back from a defeat to secure a 5-2 home win over Alaves. The model’s favourite was Home win with a 61% probability, and it proved correct. The team’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls hit with a 92.8% chance, as did Over 21.5 fouls at 85.1%. Over 2.5 cards, however, missed despite an 82.8% probability. The Over 1.5 goal pick was a hit at 77.1%, while Over 23.5 fouls also succeeded at 73.6%. Under 11.5 corners performed well at 71.8%, but Under 3.5 fell short at 70.3%. Overall, the model’s predictions largely came through.