PythiaFootballBETA
Villarreal are favourites to win at home against Atletico Madrid, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a draw against Racing Santander. The model predicts a home win, which aligns with the probabilities: a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw, and 30% for an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total number of goals being 2, and the most likely score being 1-1 with a probability of 12.1%.
At home, Villarreal have scored an average of 0.33 goals and conceded 2.0, while Atletico Madrid have scored 1.55 goals and conceded 1.45 when playing away against a weaker opponent. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.3% chance of being correct, and Over 3.5 cards, which has a 70.2% chance of missing. The home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
The win extends Villarreal's recent run, having drawn their previous match. The final score of 5-1 was a significant departure from the expected total of 3 goals, with the actual result being a home win. The model correctly picked Villarreal as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection was correct, as Villarreal secured the win. The model's selection, a home win, was the likely outcome. The model suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit, and Over 3.5 cards, which missed, with probabilities of 81.3% and 70.2% respectively.
Villarreal| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.57 | 2.14 | 1.43 | 1.12 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 2.80 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.75 | 0.88 | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
Atletico Madrid| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.30 | 1.93 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.87 | 1.26 | 2.17 | 1.08 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Atletico Madrid goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 12% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
VillarrealAtletico MadridVillarreal| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 25.1 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 8.9 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 24.8 | 25.2 | 24.4 |
| vs Similar (16) | 8.9 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 24.0 | 22.3 | 25.3 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 8.5 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 24.6 | 24.1 | 25.3 |
| % over line | 40% | 52% | 28% | 58% | 56% | 60% | 68% | 60% | 76% |
| % under line | 60% | 48% | 72% | 42% | 44% | 40% | 32% | 40% | 24% |
Atletico Madrid| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 20.6 | 19.7 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 7.8 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 23.5 | 26.7 | 20.3 |
| vs Similar (8) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 21.5 | 20.3 | 22.2 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 11.1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 19.9 | 18.6 | 21.7 |
| % over line | 58% | 58% | 58% | 54% | 46% | 62% | 44% | 35% | 54% |
| % under line | 42% | 42% | 42% | 46% | 54% | 38% | 56% | 65% | 46% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/01/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/08/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/11/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/06/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/08/22 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/01/22 | H | 2-2 |
Villarreal| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
Atletico Madrid| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |