This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osasuna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.23
0.94
1.31
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.17
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.05
1.09
1.09
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.19-3.4%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.69+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.9%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.7%
1-2 ✓
5.6%
3-0
4.6%
Villarreal goals ↓
Osasuna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.7%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
8.8%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.6%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Villarreal goals (down), columns = Osasuna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atletico Madrid
2.26
Real Madrid
2.21
Barcelona
2.08
Sevilla
2.03
Real Sociedad
1.63
Real Betis
1.61
Villarreal
1.53
Celta Vigo
1.39
Athletic Club
1.21
Granada CF
1.21
Cadiz
1.16
Osasuna
1.16
Valencia
1.13
Levante
1.08
Getafe
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Elche
0.95
Huesca
0.89
Valladolid
0.82
Eibar
0.79
Villarreal is 0.37 points better than Osasuna in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.24
Atletico Madrid
1.76
Real Madrid
1.76
Villarreal
1.58
Real Sociedad
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.45
Sevilla
1.39
Real Betis
1.32
Valencia
1.32
Granada CF
1.24
Athletic Club
1.21
Levante
1.21
Osasuna
0.97
Cadiz
0.95
Alaves
0.95
Valladolid
0.89
Huesca
0.89
Elche
0.89
Eibar
0.76
Getafe
0.74
Villarreal is 0.61 goals better than Osasuna in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.66
Real Madrid
0.74
Sevilla
0.87
Real Sociedad
1.00
Barcelona
1.00
Athletic Club
1.11
Getafe
1.13
Villarreal
1.16
Osasuna
1.26
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.37
Huesca
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Elche
1.45
Valladolid
1.50
Celta Vigo
1.50
Alaves
1.50
Levante
1.50
Cadiz
1.53
Granada CF
1.71
Villarreal is 0.11 goals better than Osasuna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Villarreal
For 3.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Osasuna
For 2.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Villarreal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.5
7.6
4.5
4.2
4.8
25.9
25.9
26.0
vs Stronger (7)
8.7
8.7
8.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
24.1
28.7
20.8
vs Similar (17)
9.1
9.4
8.8
5.2
4.1
5.9
26.7
26.6
26.8
vs Weaker (26)
7.2
8.0
6.1
4.5
4.4
4.5
25.9
25.1
27.1
% over line
36%
44%
28%
66%
64%
68%
82%
80%
84%
% under line
64%
56%
72%
34%
36%
32%
18%
20%
16%
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osasuna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.3
8.2
4.7
4.7
4.7
26.6
26.3
26.8
vs Stronger (12)
7.6
6.4
9.2
3.9
4.1
3.6
22.2
21.7
23.0
vs Similar (36)
7.9
7.7
8.0
5.0
4.9
5.1
28.1
27.9
28.2
vs Weaker (2)
6.5
7.0
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
25.5
29.0
22.0
% over line
26%
23%
29%
72%
73%
71%
76%
73%
79%
% under line
74%
77%
71%
28%
27%
29%
24%
27%
21%
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Levante
9.7
Valencia
9.6
Eibar
9.3
Real Betis
9.3
Real Madrid
9.2
Cadiz
9.2
Barcelona
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
Atletico Madrid
9.1
Athletic Club
9.0
Sevilla
9.0
Real Sociedad
8.6
Celta Vigo
8.6
Huesca
8.5
Alaves
8.5
Granada CF
8.4
Elche
8.1
Getafe
8.1
Villarreal
8.0
Osasuna
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
7.1
Celta Vigo
5.8
Granada CF
5.7
Alaves
5.3
Real Betis
5.3
Elche
5.3
Sevilla
5.2
Valencia
5.2
Cadiz
5.0
Athletic Club
4.9
Real Sociedad
4.8
Atletico Madrid
4.8
Valladolid
4.8
Osasuna
4.7
Villarreal
4.5
Barcelona
4.3
Levante
4.3
Huesca
4.2
Real Madrid
4.1
Eibar
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
31.7
Celta Vigo
29.7
Huesca
29.7
Granada CF
28.7
Elche
28.5
Alaves
28.2
Cadiz
28.0
Valladolid
27.9
Real Betis
27.6
Real Sociedad
27.5
Sevilla
27.2
Athletic Club
26.7
Osasuna
26.6
Valencia
26.3
Villarreal
25.9
Atletico Madrid
25.9
Levante
25.5
Eibar
25.1
Real Madrid
24.7
Barcelona
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
33.6%
Under 9.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.1%
Under 3.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
80.5%
Under 21.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Villarreal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.60
0.53
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.75
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.25
0.78
0.33
1.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osasuna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.38
0.56
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.32
0.55
0.36
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Villarreal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
1.00
0.47
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
1.22
0.44
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osasuna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.56
0.75
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.73
0.55
0.73
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Villarreal · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Georges Mikautadze33%
Juan Foyth0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Foyth67%
Santiago Mouriño67%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Carlos Romero33%
Renato Veiga33%
Gerard Moreno0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Georges Mikautadze0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georges Mikautadze33%
Alberto Moleiro33%
Juan Foyth0%
Gerard Moreno0%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georges Mikautadze67%
Juan Foyth33%
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Osasuna · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Budimir67%
Kike Barja33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Raúl García de Haro0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Herrera67%
Kike Barja67%
Jon Moncayola33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Jorge Herrando33%
Iker Muñoz33%
Lucas Torró0%
Rubén García0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rubén García33%
Ante Budimir33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Villarreal's squad is €254m more valuable than Osasuna's (€325m vs €71m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
CAD (12)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
HUE (9)
€2m
Villarreal's attack is €99m more valuable than Osasuna's (€124m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
VAL (6)
€6m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Villarreal's midfield is €39m more valuable than Osasuna's (€52m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
CAD (12)
€12m
VAL (12)
€10m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Villarreal's defence is €115m more valuable than Osasuna's (€148m vs €33m).
Spain: La Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
Granada CF
Cadiz
Valencia
Levante
Getafe
Alaves
Elche
Huesca
Valladolid
Eibar