Virtus Entella is expected to take the win as they host Carrarese in Italy: Serie B. The home side's recent form is encouraging, coming off a win against Carrarese just last time out, and they have a strong record at home, scoring 1.62 goals on average and conceding just 0.75.
The model predicts a home win, with a 51% chance of success, while the draw is a 27% possibility and an away win a 22% chance. The expected number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
Virtus Entella's home scoring and conceding record is stronger than Carrarese's away form, scoring an average of 1.18 goals and conceding 1.45 away from home. The model's selection is the home win, and they also suggest Over 1.5 goals (74.3%) and Under 3.5 goals (73.7%) as their selections. Virtus Entella is predicted to win 51% of the time, draw 27% and lose 22% of the time.
Results analysis
The win extends Virtus Entella's run, following their previous victory against Carrarese. The final score was 2-1 in favour of the home team, resulting in a home win. This outcome was predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly picked the home team to win with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's selection was correct, as the home team secured the win. The model also suggested two other selections, both of which came to fruition: Over 1.5 goals with a 74.3% probability, which hit, and Under 3.5 goals with a 73.7% probability, which also hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virtus Entella win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.59
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 3.97
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrarese win✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.72
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Virtus Entella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
1.40
0.93
0.47
1.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.90
1.00
1.20
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.05
1.60
0.80
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrarese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.33
0.87
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.39
1.21
0.79
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.62-9.2%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 2.16+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.2%
Virtus Entella goals ↓
Carrarese goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Virtus Entella goals (down), columns = Carrarese goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Virtus Entella is 0.05 points worse than Carrarese in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Virtus Entella is 0.29 goals worse than Carrarese in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Virtus Entella is 0.03 goals better than Carrarese in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Virtus Entella is 4.3 percentage points worse than Carrarese in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Virtus Entella
For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 15.2 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Carrarese
For 6.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.6 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Virtus Entella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.9
4.3
4.8
3.9
29.8
30.1
29.5
vs Stronger (14)
10.3
10.9
9.7
3.9
4.6
3.3
28.4
30.7
26.1
vs Similar (36)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.5
4.9
4.2
30.3
29.8
30.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
62%
69%
64%
75%
54%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
34%
38%
31%
36%
25%
46%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrarese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
11.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
28.2
29.2
27.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.7
9.0
4.0
26.3
28.0
25.5
vs Similar (47)
10.4
9.8
11.1
5.1
4.9
5.4
28.3
29.2
27.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
62%
67%
70%
69%
71%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
36%
38%
33%
30%
31%
29%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Padova
10.1
Virtus Entella
10.1
Spezia
10.0
Frosinone
10.0
Palermo
9.8
Bari
9.8
Mantova
9.6
Empoli
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Cesena
9.3
Juve Stabia
9.2
Avellino
9.2
Sampdoria
9.1
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.1
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.9
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.2
Carrarese
5.2
Pescara
5.1
Avellino
5.0
Juve Stabia
4.9
Modena
4.9
Reggiana
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Padova
4.8
Catanzaro
4.7
Bari
4.7
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.4
Empoli
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Monza
4.2
Cesena
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.9
Spezia
32.3
Juve Stabia
31.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.1
Sudtirol
30.5
Frosinone
30.5
Venezia
29.9
Catanzaro
29.8
Virtus Entella
29.8
Empoli
29.8
Reggiana
29.5
Padova
29.5
Modena
28.9
Carrarese
28.2
Bari
28.2
Palermo
27.9
Monza
27.1
Cesena
26.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.0%
Under 9.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.8%
Under 21.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Virtus Entella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.47
0.33
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.20
0.40
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.60
0.30
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrarese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.40
0.40
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.68
0.36
0.36
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Virtus Entella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.93
0.60
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.80
0.80
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrarese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.47
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.71
0.86
0.43
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (30)
€79m
FRO (40)
€55m
MON (34)
€49m
CAT (38)
€46m
SAM (33)
€41m
MOD (35)
€36m
EMP (38)
€36m
PAL (27)
€35m
SPE (40)
€34m
JS (39)
€34m
CES (32)
€28m
REG (43)
€26m
MAN (34)
€25m
CAR (33)
€25m
PES (43)
€22m
AVE (34)
€21m
SUD (33)
€20m
PAD (35)
€20m
BAR (28)
€18m
VE (44)
€16m
Virtus Entella's squad is €9m less valuable than Carrarese's (€16m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAT (18)
€25m
FRO (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€17m
EMP (14)
€15m
VEN (6)
€15m
CES (9)
€15m
SAM (9)
€14m
MOD (8)
€9m
MAN (10)
€9m
BAR (11)
€9m
CAR (8)
€7m
SPE (6)
€7m
PAL (3)
€7m
PES (13)
€6m
JS (9)
€6m
AVE (11)
€5m
VE (13)
€5m
REG (12)
€5m
PAD (10)
€4m
SUD (7)
€3m
Virtus Entella's attack is €2m less valuable than Carrarese's (€5m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (10)
€35m
SPE (16)
€16m
JS (13)
€16m
PAL (11)
€16m
MON (8)
€13m
FRO (8)
€12m
CAT (5)
€12m
MOD (12)
€11m
PES (12)
€10m
EMP (8)
€7m
VE (13)
€7m
PAD (11)
€7m
AVE (7)
€6m
CAR (11)
€6m
SUD (10)
€5m
SAM (8)
€5m
BAR (7)
€5m
REG (11)
€4m
MAN (6)
€4m
CES (8)
€4m
Virtus Entella and Carrarese have a similar midfield value (both €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (14)
€28m
SAM (16)
€22m
FRO (18)
€21m
MON (15)
€20m
REG (20)
€17m
MOD (15)
€16m
EMP (16)
€13m
JS (17)
€12m
PAL (13)
€12m
MAN (18)
€12m
SUD (16)
€12m
CAR (14)
€11m
SPE (18)
€11m
CES (15)
€10m
CAT (15)
€9m
AVE (16)
€9m
PAD (14)
€9m
PES (18)
€6m
BAR (10)
€4m
VE (18)
€4m
Virtus Entella's defence is €8m less valuable than Carrarese's (€4m vs €11m).
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Monza
Venezia
Frosinone
Palermo
Catanzaro
Modena
Juve Stabia
Avellino
Padova
Cesena
Mantova
Sampdoria
Sudtirol
Bari
Empoli
Reggiana
Pescara
Spezia