Virtus Entella are tipped to lift the trophy, with the model picking a home win and a 45% chance of victory, 30% for a draw and 26% for Cesena. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. At home, Entella have been scoring 1.86 and conceding 0.86 against similar opposition, while Cesena on the road average 0.46 scored and 1.54 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (97.2% with a 4% edge) and Over 19.5 fouls (95.9%). Entella are coming off a defeat to Sudtirol, while Cesena return from a draw with Sampdoria.
Results analysis
Virtus Entella’s run of two straight defeats ended in an upset, as Cesena snatched a 1-2 away win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong, with the model’s 45% probability proving inaccurate. The match’s final score of 1-2 confirmed the away triumph. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.2%) hit, and Over 19.5 fouls (95.7%) hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each pick was reported once.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virtus Entella win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.17
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Dafabet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.15
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Cesena win✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.39
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
1xBet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Betano
3.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Virtus Entella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.33
1.36
0.93
0.44
1.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.57
0.86
1.00
0.57
2.14
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.12
1.86
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.53
1.53
0.46
1.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.53
1.53
1.53
0.46
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.34+0.9%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.09-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.15
Betano
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.10-1.7%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.71+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
SBO
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
@ 3.69-3.1%
Under 3.5
77.7%
@ 1.25+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.99
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
@ 1.82-1.9%
No
50.9%
@ 1.90+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Unibet
1.81
No
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.82+6.3%
1-0
11.3%@ 6.67+4.6%
0-0
10.3%@ 8.23+4.8%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.38+3.6%
2-0
8.8%@ 9.64+4.2%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.82+2.7%
1-2 ✓
6.4%@ 11.01+2.3%
0-2
4.6%@ 15.76+1.7%
Virtus Entella goals ↓
Cesena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.8%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.9%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.2%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Virtus Entella goals (down), columns = Cesena goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Virtus Entella is 0.11 points worse than Cesena in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Virtus Entella is 0.24 goals worse than Cesena in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Virtus Entella is 0.13 goals better than Cesena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Virtus Entella is 3.7 percentage points worse than Cesena in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Virtus Entella
For 4.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 15.5 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cesena
For 4.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Virtus Entella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.7
4.2
4.6
3.8
29.9
29.9
29.9
vs Stronger (18)
10.8
11.1
10.4
4.2
5.0
3.3
28.8
30.8
26.8
vs Similar (32)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.2
4.4
4.1
30.5
29.3
31.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
67%
65%
64%
75%
54%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
34%
33%
35%
36%
25%
46%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.0
8.8
4.1
4.4
3.8
26.3
25.6
26.9
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (47)
9.4
9.9
8.9
4.2
4.5
3.8
26.1
25.7
26.5
vs Weaker (2)
7.5
-
7.5
4.5
-
4.5
31.5
-
31.5
% over line
46%
56%
36%
60%
68%
52%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
54%
44%
64%
40%
32%
48%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
10.0
Palermo
9.5
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Ascoli
32.7
Sampdoria
32.7
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.1
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.9
Modena
28.6
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.3
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.7%
@ 1.93+1.3%
Under 9.5
50.3%
@ 1.81-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.7%
@ 1.65+5.5%
Under 3.5
38.3%
@ 2.12-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.3%
Under 21.5
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Virtus Entella or Draw✗ Miss
77.5%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
+5.2%
45%
29%
26%
covers Virtus Entella + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Virtus Entella or Cesena✓ Hit
70.0%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-1.1%
45%
29%
26%
covers Virtus Entella + Cesena
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Cesena✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.65
Edge
-4.1%
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Cesena
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.9%
@ 1.25+0.6%
Under
25.1%
@ 3.61-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.2%
@ 2.25-1.1%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.59+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 5.06-2.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Virtus Entella over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 11.75-2.9%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Cesena over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.3%
@ 1.43-6.6%
Under
41.7%
@ 2.64+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.62
Cesena over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.8%
@ 3.12-8.0%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.33+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Cesena over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 8.10-5.7%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.05+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Cesena over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 19.92-3.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Virtus Entella, so a minus line means Virtus Entella give that many goals of a start and Cesena receive them. At -1, Virtus Entella must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Virtus Entella win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.76
0.82
0.23
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.73
0.76
0.82
0.23
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.44+0.5%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.65-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
29.1%
@ 3.04-1.6%
Under 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.35+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.3%
@ 7.95-2.5%
Under 2.5
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 2.00+0.4%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.73-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 6.03-3.5%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.09+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.67-3.2%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Cesena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.45-0.3%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.49+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Cesena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.3%
@ 8.62-3.4%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Cesena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 33.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Virtus Entella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.93
0.57
0.19
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.93
0.71
0.71
0.00
1.14
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
1.14
0.43
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.76
0.71
0.23
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.80
0.76
0.71
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.26-1.2%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.52+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.23-3.4%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.60+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 5.00-3.2%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.14+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.5%
@ 1.70-2.0%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 4.44-4.3%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.17+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 11.92-3.2%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Cesena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 2.02-5.2%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.71+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Cesena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.24-3.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.09+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Cesena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.50-3.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.07
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.5%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
77.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.4%
1.26
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.35
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
+1.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+0.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Virtus Entella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrea Tiritiello33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Parodi33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Niccolò Squizzato33%
Stefano Di Mario33%
Francesco Forte0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Andrea Franzoni0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Bernat Guiu0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Cesena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Shpendi67%
Antonio Fiori33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cristian Shpendi67%
Matteo Guidi33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Guidi33%
Xavello Druiventak33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Virtus Entella's squad is €17m less valuable than Cesena's (€11m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Virtus Entella's attack is €8m less valuable than Cesena's (€3m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Virtus Entella and Cesena have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Virtus Entella's defence is €10m less valuable than Cesena's (€2m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Cremonese