Vitesse enter the match on a positive streak, having won their last game 4-1 against Den Bosch, while FC OSS also comes off a victory, 2-1 over Jong Utrecht. The model sees a 50% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 24% for an away win, making a Vitesse victory the favourite. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.2%. Vitesse’s home form shows 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against teams of similar strength, whereas FC OSS averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded on the road against similar opponents. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2%, edge 4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%, edge 5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%, edge 3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%, edge 7%), Under 5.5 (94.5%, edge 8%), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%, edge 12%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vitesse win
51.9%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.60
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.66
William Hil
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.10
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.23
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
FC OSS win
23.1%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.75
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Pinnacle
4.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.37
1.56
1.56
1.64
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.48
1.43
1.71
1.62
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.56
1.94
1.00
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.07
1.00
2.67
1.00
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.25
1.90
1.50
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.16+0.3%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 4.79-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Unibet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.84
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.53-3.4%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.37+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
BetVictor
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.48
Betfair
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.38
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
@ 2.37-4.6%
Under 3.5
65.1%
@ 1.55+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Under
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.58+0.1%
No
41.4%
@ 2.23-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.60
No
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 7.70+6.0%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.59+3.9%
2-0
8.4%@ 8.51+3.2%
1-0
8.2%@ 8.55+3.0%
1-2
6.2%@ 13.57+2.9%
0-0
6.1%@ 14.13+3.0%
3-1
5.9%@ 10.79+1.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.47+2.1%
Vitesse goals ↓
FC OSS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.8%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.1%
5.9%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vitesse goals (down), columns = FC OSS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Vitesse is 0.32 points better than FC OSS in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Vitesse is 0.26 goals better than FC OSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Vitesse is 0.24 goals better than FC OSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Vitesse is 3.4 percentage points better than FC OSS in terms of average possession (46% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vitesse
For 4.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC OSS
For 5.5 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
4.4
4.7
4.1
26.7
26.8
26.6
vs Stronger (4)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
23.8
26.0
21.5
vs Similar (45)
10.1
9.7
10.4
4.4
4.6
4.1
27.2
26.9
27.5
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
3.0
-
3.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
57%
56%
62%
71%
54%
90%
87%
92%
% under line
44%
43%
44%
38%
29%
46%
10%
13%
8%
This opponent (FC OSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.4
11.5
4.0
3.9
4.0
29.0
30.9
27.0
vs Stronger (22)
12.2
13.1
11.5
3.9
3.5
4.2
27.4
29.5
25.7
vs Similar (28)
11.7
11.9
11.5
4.0
4.1
3.9
30.2
31.9
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
78%
80%
76%
52%
56%
48%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
22%
20%
24%
48%
44%
52%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.4%
@ 1.50+0.2%
Under 9.5
38.6%
@ 2.37-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.21
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.7%
Under 21.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vitesse or Draw
71.6%
Avg Implied 80.3% · @ 1.16
Edge
-8.8%
52%
25%
23%
covers Vitesse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Vitesse or FC OSS
72.1%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-5.9%
52%
25%
23%
covers Vitesse + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Draw or FC OSS
56.3%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.24
Edge
+14.7%
52%
25%
23%
covers Draw + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.21
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vitesse over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
@ 1.09-7.5%
Under
22.2%
@ 6.33+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Vitesse over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
@ 1.53-16.4%
Under
55.6%
@ 2.37+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.38
Vitesse over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
@ 2.66-15.6%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.43+15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Vitesse over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
@ 5.09-11.6%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.13+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.20
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Under
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
FC OSS over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
@ 1.41+3.5%
Under
30.9%
@ 2.70-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
FC OSS over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
@ 3.00+2.0%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.34-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
FC OSS over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
@ 7.41-1.0%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.06+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
FC OSS over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
@ 17.50-2.3%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vitesse, so a minus line means Vitesse give that many goals of a start and FC OSS receive them. At -1, Vitesse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vitesse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vitesse)
Vitesse -2
8.8%
@ 4.45-11.3%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 4.60-5.9%
FC OSS +2
77.7%
@ 1.48+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Handicap -1 (Vitesse)
Vitesse -1
22.3%
@ 2.42-14.6%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.71-2.7%
FC OSS +1
56.3%
@ 2.29+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.51
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Away
Unibet
2.40
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Handicap +1 (Vitesse)
Vitesse +1
71.6%
@ 1.15-5.3%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 6.28+2.3%
FC OSS -1
12.0%
@ 9.78+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
6.10
Handicap +2 (Vitesse)
Vitesse +2
88.0%
@ 1.03-2.7%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 15.00+2.0%
FC OSS -2
3.8%
@ 31.00+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.59
1.00
0.50
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.56
0.69
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.33
1.17
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.25
0.70
0.40
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.26-3.6%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 3.52+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 2.24-8.1%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.59+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Betfair
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 5.09-6.6%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.7%
@ 1.54-4.5%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.34+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.27
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 3.66-7.5%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.24+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
Betano
3.85
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 9.03-7.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Betano
9.00
Superbet
8.90
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
FC OSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.2%
@ 2.39-5.6%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.52+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
FC OSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 8.20-4.5%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
FC OSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 29.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
1.06
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.89
0.43
1.21
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.00
1.25
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.67
1.50
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.00
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
@ 1.15-1.6%
Under 0.5
21.0%
@ 4.80+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
@ 1.77-8.0%
Under 1.5
55.4%
@ 1.96+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Under
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 3.36-9.5%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.28+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.9%
@ 1.36-5.0%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.88+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.80
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.7%
@ 2.74-8.2%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.40+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betano
2.72
10Bet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.2%
@ 6.44-2.1%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
FC OSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.6%
@ 1.95-5.8%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.76+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
FC OSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.9%
@ 5.79-6.1%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.10+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Betano
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
FC OSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
@ 15.83-4.3%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+7.0%
Under 5.5
94.5%
1.06
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+6.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+11.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+6.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
+6.6%
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-2.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-
+2.1%
Under 4.5
86.6%
1.20
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
+9.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
+7.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
+9.5%
Over 1.5
80.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
+0.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
1.43
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
+15.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-1.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-7.5%
Away +2 handicap
77.7%
1.48
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
+17.2%
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.3%
1.40
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
+8.2%
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.26
-
+1.8%
Home or Away
72.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-5.9%
Home or Draw
71.6%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-8.8%
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-5.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-3.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vitesse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
FC OSS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Maurilio de Lannoy33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Mauresmo Hinoke33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Mert Erkan33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Franslyn Nsingi0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Vitesse's squad is €3m more valuable than FC OSS's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Vitesse's attack is €3m more valuable than FC OSS's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Vitesse and FC OSS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Vitesse and FC OSS have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht