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Vittoriosa Stars vs Gudja United Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 2-3
Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
Vs
26%
30%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Vittoriosa Stars a 26% win probability against Gudja United in the Malta: Challenge League on 2026-04-18, with 30% for the draw and 45% for Gudja United. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

Results analysis

Vittoriosa Stars finished 2-3 against Gudja United (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 26% home win, 30% draw and 45% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (70%). Missed: Under 3.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vittoriosa Stars win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United win✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D33D11D01L22D21W11D11D10W01LH·BIR17/01A·ST.01/02H·MAR08/02H·MEL14/02A·MAR21/02H·ZUR28/02H·SAN08/03A·MGA15/03A·MTA01/04H·ZEB11/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.570.881.311.571.86
vs Stronger (12)1.422.001.171.331.672.67
vs Similar (13)1.001.460.711.431.331.50
vs Weaker (5)1.200.800.671.002.000.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D02L00D03L12L33D30W12L20WH·SIR17/01A·PIE31/01H·SWI08/02H·MGA14/02H·ZUR21/02A·SAN28/02A·MAR08/03H·MTA15/03H·ZEB04/04A·MGA12/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.271.001.241.691.31
vs Stronger (27)1.331.261.001.211.691.31
vs Similar (3)1.001.331.001.33--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
10.5%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.6%
Vittoriosa Stars goals ↓
Gudja United goals →
01234
010%12%8.9%4.1%1.4%
17.9%14%8.9%4.1%1.4%
24.6%6.3%4.4%2.0%0.7%
31.5%2.1%1.5%0.7%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vittoriosa Stars goals (down), columns = Gudja United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.50 points worse than Gudja United in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.14 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.36 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D00D11D21W00D01L10W01LH·BIR17/01A·ST.01/02H·MAR08/02H·MEL14/02A·MAR21/02H·ZUR28/02H·SAN08/03A·MGA15/03A·MTA01/04H·ZEB11/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.330.800.670.80
vs Stronger (13)0.381.230.331.000.431.43
vs Similar (12)0.580.420.170.501.000.33
vs Weaker (5)0.600.600.671.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L00D01L10W22D20W11D10WH·SIR17/01A·PIE31/01H·SWI08/02H·MGA14/02H·ZUR21/02A·SAN28/02A·MAR08/03H·MTA15/03H·ZEB04/04A·MGA12/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.350.710.850.69
vs Stronger (27)0.590.700.360.710.850.69
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.330.67--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (32)
€1m
BIR (28)
€0m
SU (27)
€0m
FU (45)
€0m
ZR (43)
€0m
ZUR (38)
€0m
GU (30)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Vittoriosa Stars vs Gudja United · H/A from VS
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/25AGudja United Vs VS1-0

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HVS Vs Zebbug Rangers0-1
01/04/26AMtarfa Vs VS0-1
15/03/26AMgarr United Vs VS1-1
08/03/26HVS Vs Santa Lucía1-1
28/02/26HVS Vs Zurrieq2-1
21/02/26AMarsa Vs VS2-2
14/02/26HVS Vs Melita0-1
08/02/26HVS Vs Marsa1-1
01/02/26ASt. Andrews Vs VS3-3
17/01/26HVS Vs Birzebbuga1-1

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26AMgarr United Vs GU0-2
04/04/26HGU Vs Zebbug Rangers1-2
15/03/26HGU Vs Mtarfa3-0
08/03/26AMarsa Vs GU3-3
28/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs GU2-1
21/02/26HGU Vs Zurrieq0-3
14/02/26HGU Vs Mgarr United0-0
08/02/26HGU Vs Swieqi United0-2
31/01/26APietà Hotspurs Vs GU1-1
17/01/26HGU Vs Sirens1-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL0.88
HomeDLWDL0.96
AwayLDDDW0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.822.423.26
Over 1.5 %73%65%83%
Over 2.5 %51%42%61%
Over 3.5 %33%23%43%
Scored1.040.851.26
Conceded1.781.582.00
BTTS49%35%65%
Clean Sheet20%23%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.12
HomeLDLWL1.00
AwayDDLDW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%27%29%
AVG goals2.822.882.75
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.201.151.25
Conceded1.621.731.50
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet24%23%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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