Vittoriosa Stars are clear favourites, with the model rating a 70% chance of a home win, 18% for a draw and 12% for a Gudja United victory. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 9.2% probability, and the expected total goals is 3.7, with the most probable total of three goals at 21%. The Stars have scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.5 at home against weaker opposition, while Gudja United, playing away against stronger opponents, averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 7.5 at 96.6%, Home +2 handicap at 95.6%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.7%, Under 6.5 at 92.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.1%, Over 1.5 at 88.8% and Home or Draw at 87.8%. The Stars’ recent form shows a 2-game winning run, while Gudja United ended their last match 3-2, reinforcing the home advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vittoriosa Stars win
70.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vittoriosa Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
0.94
1.31
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.80
0.78
1.33
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gudja United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.00
1.19
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
1.41
1.26
1.00
1.15
1.79
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.33
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.7%
3-0
7.7%
1-0
6.0%
4-1
5.3%
4-0
5.0%
Vittoriosa Stars goals ↓
Gudja United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.0%
7.7%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
2
8.8%
9.2%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.7%
8.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
4
5.0%
5.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vittoriosa Stars goals (down), columns = Gudja United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.50 points worse than Gudja United in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.14 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.36 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vittoriosa Stars or Draw
87.8%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers Vittoriosa Stars + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars or Gudja United
82.5%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers Vittoriosa Stars + Gudja United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gudja United
29.7%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Gudja United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 3.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vittoriosa Stars, so a minus line means Vittoriosa Stars give that many goals of a start and Gudja United receive them. At -1, Vittoriosa Stars must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vittoriosa Stars win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars -2
29.7%
Draw -2
20.1%
Gudja United +2
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars -1
49.8%
Draw -1
20.5%
Gudja United +1
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars +1
87.8%
Draw +1
7.8%
Gudja United -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.2%
Gudja United -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vittoriosa Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gudja United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (27)
0.63
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vittoriosa Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gudja United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.69
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
0.59
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
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Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs