Vittoriosa Stars are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 68% chance to a home win. Their recent 2-straight-defeat slump is already behind them, and they have been scoring an average of 1.17 goals while conceding 1.5 at home against weaker opposition. Zebbug Rangers, on the other hand, struggle on the road, averaging only 0.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against stronger opponents, and they just drew 1-1 with Marsa. The expected total is 3.2 goals, so a 3-goal match is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Vittoriosa, with an 11% chance. Home win probability is 68%, draw 20%, away win 12%. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Home +2 handicap at 95.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.0%, Under 5.5 at 90.0%, Home over 0.5 goals at 89.7%, and Home or Draw at 87.7%. These picks reflect the Stars’ home dominance and the Rangers’ defensive frailties away.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vittoriosa Stars win
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers win
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vittoriosa Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
0.94
1.31
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.80
0.78
1.33
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.00
2.43
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.28
1.00
2.31
0.92
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.1%
4-0
4.7%
Vittoriosa Stars goals ↓
Zebbug Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
2.9%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.8%
9.4%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
9.7%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.3%
7.4%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.7%
4.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vittoriosa Stars goals (down), columns = Zebbug Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.05 points better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.14 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Vittoriosa Stars is 0.55 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vittoriosa Stars or Draw
87.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Vittoriosa Stars + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars or Zebbug Rangers
80.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Vittoriosa Stars + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zebbug Rangers
32.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Draw + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5
Over
89.7%
Under
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 3.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vittoriosa Stars, so a minus line means Vittoriosa Stars give that many goals of a start and Zebbug Rangers receive them. At -1, Vittoriosa Stars must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vittoriosa Stars win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars -2
24.9%
Draw -2
20.5%
Zebbug Rangers +2
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars -1
45.3%
Draw -1
22.4%
Zebbug Rangers +1
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars +1
87.7%
Draw +1
8.2%
Zebbug Rangers -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vittoriosa Stars)
Vittoriosa Stars +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.1%
Zebbug Rangers -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vittoriosa Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.21
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.88
0.23
0.77
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vittoriosa Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.79
1.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.40
0.77
1.54
0.58
1.25
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
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Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Victoria Hotspurs