This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
0.94
1.62
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.75
2.12
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.06
1.12
1.12
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1 ✓
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.1%
Vizela goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.2%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.4%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.4%
8.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vizela goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Vizela is 0.32 points better than Chaves in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Vizela is 0.29 goals better than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Vizela is 0.12 goals better than Chaves in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Vizela is 6.0 percentage points better than Chaves in terms of average possession (62% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vizela
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 11.5 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vizela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.2
4.7
3.8
27.6
26.9
28.1
vs Stronger (16)
9.2
9.5
9.0
3.8
3.5
4.1
29.4
29.8
29.0
vs Similar (34)
10.2
10.6
9.8
4.4
5.3
3.7
26.7
25.6
27.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
56%
47%
68%
74%
63%
95%
95%
95%
% under line
49%
44%
53%
32%
26%
37%
5%
5%
5%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.7
11.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
26.4
26.2
26.6
vs Stronger (26)
10.2
9.2
11.3
5.2
5.2
5.3
26.5
28.3
24.9
vs Similar (24)
10.2
7.8
12.1
3.8
3.5
4.2
26.1
23.2
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
41%
72%
68%
64%
72%
89%
89%
89%
% under line
43%
59%
28%
32%
36%
28%
11%
11%
11%
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.3
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
11.0
Portimonense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
FC Porto B
10.4
Torreense
10.4
Chaves
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.1
Mafra
10.1
Benfica B
10.1
Leixoes
9.9
Vizela
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
5.9
Chaves
5.7
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Penafiel
5.3
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Vizela
5.1
Tondela
5.1
FC Porto B
5.0
Torreense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.8
Feirense
4.8
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
29.6
Leixoes
28.7
Maritimo
27.9
Chaves
27.7
Oliveirense
27.3
Vizela
27.0
Portimonense
26.3
Penafiel
26.2
Tondela
25.8
Torreense
25.4
União de Leiria
25.4
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica B
24.8
Feirense
24.7
Mafra
24.1
FC Porto B
24.1
Academico Viseu
23.7
Alverca
14.5
Felgueiras 1932
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.0%
Under 9.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.8%
Under 3.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.1%
Under 21.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vizela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.46
0.69
0.35
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
0.50
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.45
0.73
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.38
0.75
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.71
0.38
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.56
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vizela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vizela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
0.92
1.15
0.65
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.87
1.00
0.91
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.56
0.88
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vizela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vizela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Heinz Mörschel40%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Prosper Obah17%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
João Reis0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Vivaldo0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anthony Correia60%
Vivaldo40%
João Reis33%
Prosper Obah33%
Diogo Nascimento29%
Rodrigo Ramos29%
Aleksandar Busnić25%
Jota Gonçalves25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner20%
Yannick Semedo14%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
Heinz Mörschel0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Raúl García0%
Ítalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Orest Lebedenko50%
Natanael Ntolla25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Damien Loppy17%
Diogo Nascimento14%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Heinz Mörschel0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
João Reis0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Vivaldo0%
Prosper Obah0%
Ítalo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Heinz Mörschel40%
João Reis33%
Prosper Obah33%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Vivaldo20%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Ítalo0%
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Vizela's squad is €2m more valuable than Chaves's (€12m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Vizela's attack is €3m more valuable than Chaves's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Vizela and Chaves have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Vizela and Chaves have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses