Pythia gives Vizela a 33% win probability against União de Leiria in the Portugal: Segunda Liga on 2026-05-09, with 27% for the draw and 40% for União de Leiria. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Over 3.5 cards (85%), Over 1.5 (80%).
Results analysis
Vizela finished 1-0 against União de Leiria (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 33% home win, 27% draw and 40% away win. Picks that landed: Over 3.5 cards (85%). Missed: Over 1.5 (80%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vizela win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria win✗ Miss
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vizela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
1.33
1.33
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.23
1.55
1.55
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.53
1.40
1.60
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.50
1.64
1.73
1.55
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
1-0 ✓
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
Vizela goals ↓
União de Leiria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
7.0%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.2%
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
7.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vizela goals (down), columns = União de Leiria goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Vizela is 0.03 points better than União de Leiria in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Vizela is 0.38 goals worse than União de Leiria in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Vizela is 0.18 goals better than União de Leiria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Vizela is 2.3 percentage points better than União de Leiria in terms of average possession (54% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vizela
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.6 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
União de Leiria
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vizela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
11.0
5.5
5.6
5.3
19.8
25.7
14.5
vs Stronger (11)
13.0
9.0
17.0
4.6
3.3
6.2
13.2
11.5
15.0
vs Similar (36)
9.4
9.4
9.5
5.8
6.3
5.3
22.6
29.2
16.0
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
4.7
7.0
3.5
1.0
-
1.0
% over line
43%
22%
80%
74%
76%
72%
52%
70%
36%
% under line
57%
78%
20%
26%
24%
28%
48%
30%
64%
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
11.5
4.6
4.3
4.9
21.0
19.3
23.9
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
2.5
3.0
2.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
vs Similar (36)
10.5
9.9
11.8
4.9
5.0
4.8
21.7
21.9
21.3
vs Weaker (10)
8.2
5.5
11.0
4.1
2.5
6.5
25.0
16.5
42.0
% over line
60%
56%
67%
66%
58%
75%
62%
60%
67%
% under line
40%
44%
33%
34%
42%
25%
38%
40%
33%
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.7
Portimonense
11.2
Farense
10.7
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.2
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Torreense
10.0
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.9
Oliveirense
9.7
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Benfica B
9.3
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.9
Maritimo
8.3
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.7
Benfica B
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
Chaves
6.1
Felgueiras 1932
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Maritimo
6.0
Leixoes
5.9
FC Porto B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.8
Farense
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
União de Leiria
5.7
Portimonense
5.5
Oliveirense
5.5
Torreense
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
30.5
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Pacos Ferreira
24.7
Leixoes
24.5
Academico Viseu
22.2
Oliveirense
21.3
União de Leiria
21.1
Maritimo
20.2
Penafiel
20.2
Vizela
19.8
Felgueiras 1932
19.6
Benfica B
19.0
Portimonense
18.5
Feirense
18.1
FC Porto B
18.0
Chaves
18.0
Torreense
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.6%
Under 3.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.6%
Under 21.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 21.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (39)
€76m
BB (38)
€76m
FPB (36)
€57m
TOR (32)
€20m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
Vizela and União de Leiria have a similar squad value (both €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (14)
€37m
FPB (14)
€19m
BB (13)
€15m
AV (15)
€8m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
Vizela's attack is €2m more valuable than União de Leiria's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (9)
€18m
FPB (7)
€10m
BB (8)
€8m
TOR (6)
€5m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Vizela's midfield is €1m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (17)
€53m
FPB (15)
€27m
SCB (16)
€21m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
Vizela and União de Leiria have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
FC Porto B
Leixoes
Feirense
Chaves
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses