Volga Ulyanovsk hosts Chelyabinsk in Russia's First League on August 2nd. The home side is coming off a win, having beaten KAMAZ 2-1 in their last outing. This momentum could be a factor, as Volga Ulyanovsk has averaged 1.27 goals scored and conceded at home, particularly against similar opponents. Chelyabinsk, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring just 0.55 goals and conceding 1.0 per match.
The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability of Volga Ulyanovsk taking the three points. The expected total goals are 2.1, with a most likely score of 1-1 occurring 14.6% of the time. Volga Ulyanovsk's home win probability is 41%, the draw is 32%, and Chelyabinsk's away win probability is 27%.
The model's selection is the home win, with 41% probability. The model's other selections include Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), and Under 3.5 (83.4%), which has an edge of 8%.
In a major upset, Chelyabinsk secured a 0-2 away win against Volga Ulyanovsk, extending their run of competitive performances. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong as it had a 41% probability of occurring. Volga Ulyanovsk's recent form had been impressive, coming off a win, but Chelyabinsk managed to capitalize on their opponent's complacency. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection had a 27% probability of an away win. The model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit as it had an 83.4% probability of occurring, while the most likely total goals was 2. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite.
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.30 | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.55 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Chelyabinsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13% | 15% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chelyabinsk
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (15) | 6.5 | - | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 7.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 32% | 24% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 68% | 76% | - | - | - |
Chelyabinsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (41) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 34% | 38% | 30% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 66% | 62% | 70% | - | - | - |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 83.4% | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | +7.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.6% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | - | - | - | +6.3% | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.0% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.42 | 1.41 | - | - | +7.1% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 1-0 |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Chelyabinsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 29 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 3 | Veles | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 3.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 5 | Rotor Volgograd | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 2.4 | 71% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | FK Neftekhimik | 7 | 9 | 43% | 1.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 29% | 14% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 7 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | FC UFA | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 29% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 10 | Torpedo Moskva | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Enisey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Leningradets | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 1.6 | 60% | 40% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Spartak Kostroma | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 14 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 | Tekstilshchik | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1.3 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 16 | Chelyabinsk | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 46% |
| 18 | KAMAZ | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |