This match between Volga Ulyanovsk and Leningradets is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a win and the visitors recovering from a defeat. Volga Ulyanovsk's recent form note suggests momentum, having beaten KAMAZ 2-1 in their last outing. Leningradets, on the other hand, have struggled, losing to Veles 1-2. The model predicts a home win with a 38% probability, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 31%.
The expected total goals are 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. Volga Ulyanovsk has scored an average of 1 goal at home, conceding 1.38 goals, while Leningradets have scored 1.38 goals away from home and conceded 1.12 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.1% probability. This selection also has a 79.1% edge. The home side has a 38% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing. The model's selection, Under 3.5 goals, has a 79.1% chance of occurring.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk win
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leningradets win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.07
1.36
1.12
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.50
1.18
1.55
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leningradets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leningradets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.37
0.89
1.50
0.75
1.17
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
1.33
1.33
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.32
0.80
1.53
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
Volga Ulyanovsk goals ↓
Leningradets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.2%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.6%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.8%
8.0%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.8%
3.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (down), columns = Leningradets goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
Arsenal Tula
1.12
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.17 points better than Leningradets in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Ural
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.50 goals better than Leningradets in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.67 goals worse than Leningradets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Volga Ulyanovsk is 1.5 percentage points better than Leningradets in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Leningradets
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
2.0
2.1
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (13)
-
-
-
1.9
2.0
1.9
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
6.0
6.0
-
2.1
2.2
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
26%
29%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
74%
71%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Leningradets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leningradets
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
8.9
9.8
7.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (12)
7.0
7.8
5.5
3.2
3.3
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.0
11.4
8.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
44%
14%
33%
33%
32%
-
-
-
% under line
69%
56%
86%
67%
67%
68%
-
-
-
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.8%
Under 9.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Volga Ulyanovsk or Draw
66.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Volga Ulyanovsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk or Leningradets
69.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Volga Ulyanovsk + Leningradets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Leningradets
63.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Draw + Leningradets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Volga Ulyanovsk, so a minus line means Volga Ulyanovsk give that many goals of a start and Leningradets receive them. At -1, Volga Ulyanovsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Volga Ulyanovsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk -2
5.5%
Draw -2
10.7%
Leningradets +2
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk -1
16.2%
Draw -1
19.9%
Leningradets +1
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk +1
66.1%
Draw +1
19.1%
Leningradets -1
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk +2
85.2%
Draw +2
10.0%
Leningradets -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.77
0.55
0.55
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Leningradets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leningradets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.47
0.22
0.50
0.33
0.42
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.50
0.27
0.53
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.57
0.79
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.64
1.00
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Leningradets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leningradets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.42
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.82
0.53
1.00
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leningradets over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Volga Ulyanovsk's squad is €1m more valuable than Leningradets's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Volga Ulyanovsk and Leningradets have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Volga Ulyanovsk and Leningradets have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Volga Ulyanovsk and Leningradets have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk