Spartak Kostroma are tipped to win this encounter, a 44% chance against Volga Ulyanovsk’s 28% home win and 28% draw odds. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Volga, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Spartak, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (94.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.3%), Away +2 handicap (88.1%) and Under 4.5 (85.9%). Volga’s recent form shows two straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Shinnik Yaroslavl, while Spartak comes off a 0-3 defeat to Torpedo Moskva.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma win
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.07
1.36
1.12
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.50
1.18
1.55
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.41
1.36
1.00
1.27
1.82
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
7.8%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
Volga Ulyanovsk goals ↓
Spartak Kostroma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.9%
7.8%
4.0%
1.5%
1
6.6%
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.6%
7.1%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (down), columns = Spartak Kostroma goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.33 points worse than Spartak Kostroma in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Volga Ulyanovsk and Spartak Kostroma are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.33 goals worse than Spartak Kostroma in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Volga Ulyanovsk is 3.0 percentage points better than Spartak Kostroma in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spartak Kostroma
For 5.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
2.1
2.3
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (13)
-
-
-
2.2
2.7
1.9
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
6.0
6.0
-
2.1
2.2
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
28%
33%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
72%
67%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
10.5
-
10.5
1.9
2.0
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.0
-
9.0
1.6
1.6
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
12.0
-
12.0
2.8
3.4
2.3
-
-
-
% over line
50%
-
50%
27%
26%
27%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
-
50%
73%
74%
73%
-
-
-
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.9%
Under 9.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Volga Ulyanovsk or Draw
55.6%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Volga Ulyanovsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Kostroma
72.4%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Volga Ulyanovsk + Spartak Kostroma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
72.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Spartak Kostroma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Volga Ulyanovsk, so a minus line means Volga Ulyanovsk give that many goals of a start and Spartak Kostroma receive them. At -1, Volga Ulyanovsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Volga Ulyanovsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk -2
3.8%
Draw -2
8.1%
Spartak Kostroma +2
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk -1
11.9%
Draw -1
16.1%
Spartak Kostroma +1
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk +1
55.6%
Draw +1
21.4%
Spartak Kostroma -1
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Volga Ulyanovsk)
Volga Ulyanovsk +2
77.0%
Draw +2
13.7%
Spartak Kostroma -2
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.77
0.55
0.55
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.55
0.64
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.57
0.79
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.64
1.00
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.73
0.82
0.36
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
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Draw or Away
72.0%
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Away +1 handicap
72.0%
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Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
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Under 3.5
70.9%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Volga Ulyanovsk's squad is €2m less valuable than Spartak Kostroma's (€6m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Volga Ulyanovsk and Spartak Kostroma have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Volga Ulyanovsk and Spartak Kostroma have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Volga Ulyanovsk's defence is €2m less valuable than Spartak Kostroma's (€3m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →