PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Volna vs Dinamo Minsk II Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Volna
Volna
Vs
42%
27%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Minsk II
Dinamo Minsk II
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Volna are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win at 42%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9% chance. Volna’s home form shows they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Dinamo Minsk II, on the road, average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries a 78.6% probability. The draw probability sits at 27%, and the away win probability is 31%. Every suggested pick is listed: Over 1.5 (78.6%). The match is expected to be a balanced contest, with Volna’s home advantage giving them the edge, yet the scoreline 1-1 remains the most probable outcome.

Results analysis

The upset came early, as Volna’s home form - three defeats in a row - failed to translate into the predicted home win. The final score was 1-2, giving Dinamo Minsk II the away victory. The model had chosen a home win with a 42% probability, but that call was incorrect. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with an 78.6% probability. The match saw 2 total goals, matching the most likely total of 2. The pre-match favourite was therefore wrong, while the model’s other selection proved accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Volna win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VolnaVolna

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L11D41W11D02L20W03L32W41W21WH·BEL11/05A·TOR19/05A·FC 25/05H·NIV03/06A·ML 08/06H·BAR16/06A·MOL23/06H·OST30/06A·SHA05/07H·BAT20/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.601.641.641.441.56
vs Stronger (3)0.672.332.004.000.001.50
vs Similar (22)1.591.731.451.641.731.82
vs Weaker (5)1.800.602.500.501.330.67
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D32W02L01L20W20W12L13L30WH·BAT18/05A·LOK24/05H·FC 03/06H·LID08/06A·ORS16/06H·SLO22/06A·ABF28/06H·BUM06/07A·BEL20/07H·TOR26/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.381.121.561.111.141.14
vs Stronger (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
vs Similar (13)1.381.311.501.251.201.40
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2 ✓
7.6%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Volna goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk II goals →
01234
07.1%6.4%4.9%2.1%0.7%
17.9%13%7.6%3.3%1.0%
27.0%9.0%5.8%2.5%0.8%
33.6%4.6%3.0%1.3%0.4%
41.4%1.8%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volna goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
Volna is 0.41 points better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
Volna is 0.47 goals better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.59).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
Volna is 0.12 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VolnaVolna

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L20W00D01L00D02L31W11D20WH·BEL11/05A·TOR19/05A·FC 25/05H·NIV03/06A·ML 08/06H·BAR16/06A·MOL23/06H·OST30/06A·SHA05/07H·BAT20/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.000.500.620.75
vs Stronger (3)0.670.672.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (22)0.820.680.910.450.730.91
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.500.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D20W00D01L10W20W11D00D30WH·BAT18/05A·LOK24/05H·FC 03/06H·LID08/06A·ORS16/06H·SLO22/06A·ABF28/06H·BUM06/07A·BEL20/07H·TOR26/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.381.000.220.710.57
vs Stronger (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
vs Similar (13)0.920.381.000.250.800.60
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VolnaVolna

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W21W11D01L20W01L01L30W01LH·BEL11/05A·TOR19/05A·FC 25/05H·NIV03/06A·ML 08/06H·BAR16/06A·MOL23/06H·OST30/06A·SHA05/07H·BAT20/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.641.140.810.81
vs Stronger (3)0.001.670.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.771.050.551.181.000.91
vs Weaker (5)1.000.201.500.000.670.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D12L02L00D10W00D01L13L00DH·BAT18/05A·LOK24/05H·FC 03/06H·LID08/06A·ORS16/06H·SLO22/06A·ABF28/06H·BUM06/07A·BEL20/07H·TOR26/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.750.560.890.430.57
vs Stronger (2)0.500.00--0.500.00
vs Similar (13)0.460.920.501.000.400.80
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
VOL wins
0
Draws
0
DMI wins

Head-to-head

Volna vs Dinamo Minsk II · H/A from VOL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

VolnaVolna

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24HVOL Vs BATE II2-1
05/07/24AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs VOL1-4
30/06/24HVOL Vs Ostrovets FC3-2
23/06/24AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs VOL3-0
16/06/24HVOL Vs Baranovichi2-0
08/06/24AML Vitebsk Vs VOL2-0
03/06/24HVOL Vs Niva1-1
25/05/24AFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Vs VOL1-4
19/05/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs VOL1-1
11/05/24HVOL Vs Belshina0-4

Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/24HDMI Vs Torpedo BelAZ II3-0
20/07/24ABelshina Vs DMI3-1
06/07/24HDMI Vs Bumprom1-2
28/06/24AABFF U17 Vs DMI0-2
22/06/24HDMI Vs Slonim2-0
16/06/24AOrsha Vs DMI1-0
08/06/24HDMI Vs Lida0-2
03/06/24HDMI Vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3-2
24/05/24ALokomotiv Gomel Vs DMI1-1
18/05/24HDMI Vs BATE II1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Volna
Volna
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.50
HomeLDWWW1.88
AwayDWLLW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%58%31%
AVG goals2.923.332.54
Over 1.5 %78%88%69%
Over 2.5 %58%71%46%
Over 3.5 %32%42%23%
Scored1.441.791.12
Conceded1.481.541.42
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Minsk II
Dinamo Minsk II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.44
HomeWLWLW1.44
AwayWDLWL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%44%43%
AVG goals2.502.672.29
Over 1.5 %81%89%71%
Over 2.5 %56%67%43%
Over 3.5 %12%11%14%
Scored1.381.561.14
Conceded1.121.111.14
BTTS50%44%57%
Clean Sheet38%44%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches