Aris Thessalonikis are the clear favourite, with a 46% chance of victory against Volos NFC, who trail with 23%. The draw sits at 30%. Expect a modest 2.3-goal encounter, most likely a 2-goal total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Volos, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Aris, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.11 goals scored and only 0.56 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.5%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.4%, and Over 25.5 fouls at 78.8%. The model also selects Over 21.5 fouls at 94.4% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 88.8% (miss), Over 23.5 fouls at 88.3% (miss), and Over 3.5 cards at 75.6% (miss). Volos have recently struggled, losing their last five matches, while Aris are on a five-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The win extends Aris Thessalonikis’ five-game winning run, while Volos NFC come off a defeat. The final score was 1-2, an away victory that matched the model’s favourite, which was an away win with a 46% probability. The model’s call was correct. The suggested picks delivered mixed results: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.8%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 82.5%, and Under 3.5 hit at 80.4%. Over 21.5 fouls, Over 2.5 cards, Over 23.5 fouls, Over 25.5 fouls, and Over 3.5 cards all missed, with probabilities of 94.4%, 88.8%, 88.3%, 78.8%, and 75.6% respectively. The match confirmed the model’s overall assessment, though several high-probability selections fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volos NFC win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.57
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.29
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 1.96
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volos NFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.63
1.24
1.24
0.77
2.15
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.83
1.17
1.00
0.50
2.67
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.50
1.27
1.36
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.20
0.93
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.50
0.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.76
1.50
1.00
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Volos NFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.01-6.5%
Under 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.73+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
12.8%
0-0
11.5%
0-2
9.7%
1-2 ✓
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
4.4%
Volos NFC goals ↓
Aris Thessalonikis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.7%
4.4%
1.5%
1
8.0%
14%
8.7%
4.0%
1.4%
2
4.2%
5.8%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.3%
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volos NFC goals (down), columns = Aris Thessalonikis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Volos NFC is 0.42 points worse than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Volos NFC is 0.06 goals worse than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Volos NFC is 0.61 goals worse than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Volos NFC is 4.7 percentage points worse than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Volos NFC
For 4.7 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris Thessalonikis
For 5.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Volos NFC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.0
8.5
5.0
4.8
5.1
30.7
30.8
30.6
vs Stronger (15)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.9
5.0
4.8
29.2
28.8
29.6
vs Similar (35)
8.6
8.9
8.3
5.0
4.7
5.3
31.3
31.5
31.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
39%
29%
78%
77%
79%
93%
96%
90%
% under line
66%
61%
71%
22%
23%
21%
7%
4%
10%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.5
8.9
4.4
4.7
4.1
28.4
27.8
29.0
vs Stronger (7)
10.2
9.7
10.7
4.6
5.2
3.7
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (11)
8.5
9.4
7.6
4.1
3.8
4.3
28.7
27.4
30.0
vs Weaker (32)
9.2
9.5
8.9
4.5
4.9
4.1
29.3
28.8
29.9
% over line
55%
62%
48%
66%
60%
72%
95%
95%
95%
% under line
45%
38%
52%
34%
40%
28%
5%
5%
5%
This opponent (Volos NFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.6
Aris Thessalonikis
9.5
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.2
OFI Crete
9.2
Atromitos
9.0
AEK Athens FC
8.8
Volos NFC
8.8
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.7
Larisa
8.7
Levadiakos
8.6
Panetolikos
8.6
Panserraikos
8.6
PAOK
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.7
Larisa
6.1
Panserraikos
6.0
Volos NFC
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.7
OFI
5.6
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Levadiakos
5.1
Atromitos
5.0
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.7
Larisa
32.2
Volos NFC
30.9
Atromitos
30.7
AEK Athens FC
29.7
Levadiakos
29.6
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.5
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.7
Panserraikos
27.3
Panetolikos
27.1
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.2%
Under 9.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
94.4%
Under 21.5
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volos NFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.41
0.59
0.38
1.08
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.08
0.50
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.61
0.36
0.55
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.24
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Volos NFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volos NFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volos NFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volos NFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volos NFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.82
0.65
0.38
1.08
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.89
0.91
0.82
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.53
0.53
0.62
0.62
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Volos NFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volos NFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volos NFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volos NFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
Volos NFC's squad is €27m less valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€12m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
Volos NFC's attack is €16m less valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€5m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
Volos NFC's midfield is €7m less valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€2m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
Volos NFC's defence is €5m less valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€5m vs €10m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →