VPS are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of AC Oulu winning. The model expects an average of 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. VPS, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, normally scores 1.64 goals and concedes 1.36. AC Oulu, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (95.0% with a 3% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.9% with a 5% edge). VPS are coming off a defeat, while AC Oulu are returning from a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
VPS win
43.8%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.04
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.30
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
AC Oulu win
27.9%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.43
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.61
Dafabet
3.55
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
William Hil
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.13
1.13
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
3.00
1.14
3.33
0.67
2.75
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.10
1.64
1.36
1.90
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Oulu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.27
1.23
1.08
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.28+2.1%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.37-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.21
Under
Unibet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.38
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.95-0.1%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.82+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
2.01
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.81
SBO
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 3.25-1.9%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.29+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.52
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Unibet
2.85
Under
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.73+0.1%
No
46.5%
@ 1.98-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
No
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 5.85+6.1%
1-0
9.6%@ 6.78+3.2%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.79+3.5%
0-0
8.6%@ 8.72+3.6%
2-0
8.0%@ 8.97+3.1%
0-1
7.1%@ 9.11+2.3%
1-2
7.0%@ 10.54+2.8%
2-2
5.1%@ 12.52+1.7%
VPS goals ↓
AC Oulu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.1%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.6%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.0%
9.1%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.5%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = AC Oulu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
VPS is 0.05 points worse than AC Oulu in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
VPS is 0.18 goals better than AC Oulu in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
VPS is 0.14 goals better than AC Oulu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
VPS is 0.0 percentage points better than AC Oulu in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 3.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Oulu
For 5.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.6
9.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
22.3
21.5
23.2
vs Stronger (11)
8.5
9.7
5.0
1.5
3.0
0.3
23.8
22.7
27.0
vs Similar (34)
8.6
7.8
9.3
1.1
0.9
1.2
22.2
22.2
22.2
vs Weaker (5)
9.7
9.0
11.0
1.4
1.5
1.3
20.7
18.0
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
16%
17%
15%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
84%
83%
85%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Oulu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.5
8.9
1.4
1.4
1.4
22.7
25.0
20.8
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
12.0
8.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
21.8
25.5
19.3
vs Similar (41)
10.1
11.3
9.0
1.3
1.3
1.3
23.0
24.8
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
75%
30%
24%
26%
22%
56%
88%
30%
% under line
50%
25%
70%
76%
74%
78%
44%
12%
70%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.4%
Under 9.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
39.8%
Under 3.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.7%
Under 21.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
VPS or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.0%
44%
28%
28%
covers VPS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
VPS or AC Oulu
71.6%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.8%
44%
28%
28%
covers VPS + AC Oulu
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
SBO
1.27
Draw or AC Oulu
56.2%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.71
Edge
+1.8%
44%
28%
28%
covers Draw + AC Oulu
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
VPS over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
@ 1.21+0.6%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.93-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.75
VPS over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
@ 2.08-1.5%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.70+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
VPS over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
@ 4.34-2.8%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.17+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.30
Unibet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
VPS over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
@ 9.88-3.3%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
AC Oulu over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
@ 1.40+1.5%
Under
32.2%
@ 2.74-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Under
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
AC Oulu over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
@ 2.99+0.2%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.35-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.21
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Betano
2.95
Under
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
AC Oulu over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
@ 7.62-1.5%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Betfair
7.50
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
AC Oulu over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
@ 11.75-5.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to VPS, so a minus line means VPS give that many goals of a start and AC Oulu receive them. At -1, VPS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal VPS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (VPS)
VPS -2
8.6%
@ 8.17-2.3%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 5.80-1.8%
AC Oulu +2
77.9%
@ 1.21+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
5.40
Away
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (VPS)
VPS -1
22.1%
@ 3.66-2.0%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.70-2.2%
AC Oulu +1
56.2%
@ 1.70+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Marathonbet
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (VPS)
VPS +1
72.1%
@ 1.28+2.9%
Draw +1
16.3%
@ 4.90-1.8%
AC Oulu -1
11.5%
@ 7.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
6.50
Handicap +2 (VPS)
VPS +2
88.5%
Draw +2
8.0%
AC Oulu -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.27
0.53
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.86
2.33
0.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.57
0.91
0.64
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Oulu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.47
0.33
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.65
0.46
0.31
0.46
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
@ 1.39+2.0%
Under 0.5
31.3%
@ 2.80-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
William Hil
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.88
1xBet
2.73
Marathonbet
2.73
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.84-1.4%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.38+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.45
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.04-2.8%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.06+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.3%
@ 1.89+1.0%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.83-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Unibet
1.77
Under
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
VPS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.8%
@ 5.97+0.3%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.90
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
VPS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 11.50-4.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
AC Oulu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.9%
@ 2.36-2.2%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.52+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.17
Under
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
AC Oulu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
@ 8.77-2.5%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
AC Oulu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Oulu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.62
0.77
0.77
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.24+2.9%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 3.62-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 2.12-1.3%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.67+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.12
Unibet
1.95
Under
Unibet
1.74
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 4.62-2.8%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.9%
@ 1.64+1.3%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.15-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
VPS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.7%
@ 4.05-2.2%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.20+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
VPS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
@ 9.00-5.3%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
AC Oulu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
@ 1.99+1.3%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.73-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
AC Oulu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.6%
@ 6.08-2.6%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
AC Oulu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 11.50-6.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+2.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.8%
Under 5.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+1.5%
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
1.09
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-
+2.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-0.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.16
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+2.2%
Under 4.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.9%
1.21
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+4.1%
Under 10.5 corners
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.24
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
+2.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+0.6%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.21
+2.1%
Under 3.5
73.5%
1.29
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+1.9%
Home or Draw
72.1%
1.28
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.0%
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
1.28
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-
-
+2.9%
Home or Away
71.6%
1.29
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
SBO
1.27
-0.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. Räisänen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. Rönnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. Räisänen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. Räisänen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Räisänen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
AC Oulu
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julius Körkkö40%
Kalifa Jatta25%
Iiro Mendolin17%
Elias Kallio17%
R. Karjalainen14%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Julius Paananen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julius Körkkö40%
M. Ojala33%
Julius Paananen33%
Juha Pirinen29%
M. Pitkänen25%
J. Lietsa25%
Otto Kemppainen20%
Iiro Mendolin17%
Miguel Santos0%
R. Karjalainen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Santeri Silander0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
Elias Kallio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
R. Karjalainen29%
Julius Körkkö20%
Iiro Mendolin17%
L. Ghezali14%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Julius Paananen0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
Elias Kallio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julius Körkkö60%
R. Karjalainen43%
Julius Paananen17%
Elias Kallio17%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Iiro Mendolin0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
VPS and AC Oulu have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
VPS and AC Oulu have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
VPS and AC Oulu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
VPS and AC Oulu have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn