This matchup between VPS and Inter Turku in the Finland: Veikkausliiga is finely balanced, with VPS coming off a win against FF Jaro and Inter Turku drawing with Lahti. The model predicts a home win, but Inter Turku has a 35% chance of taking the three points. The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.6% probability.
VPS has a strong home form, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 1.2, while Inter Turku averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away from home. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.8% probability and a 4% edge, Under 3.5 goals at 72%, and Under 21.5 fouls at 71.4%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 36%, 28%, and 35% respectively. The model's selection for the match result is the home win, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.6% probability.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Inter Turku secured a 0-1 away win against VPS, extending their run of draws and wins. This result marks a surprise as the pre-match favourite, a Home win, did not come through, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model's selection, also a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 75.8%, missed, while its selection of Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 72%, hit. The most likely outcome was a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
VPS win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.67
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.79
Dafabet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.23
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.41
1xBet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Inter Turku win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.53
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.63
Dafabet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.23
1.80
1.07
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.60
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.28
1.71
1.29
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.86
2.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.03
1.20
0.87
1.53
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
0.00
3.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.50
0.94
1.40
0.70
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.29+3.9%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.31-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.96+2.1%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.80-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
SBO
2.04
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Unibet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 3.38+0.5%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.28-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Under
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.72+1.6%
No
44.5%
@ 2.01-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Unibet
2.08
Betfair
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 5.71+5.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.01+3.5%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.64+3.1%
0-0
8.2%@ 9.14+3.4%
1-0
8.1%@ 7.92+2.6%
0-1 ✓
7.9%@ 7.65+2.2%
2-0
6.3%@ 12.34+2.7%
0-2
6.0%@ 11.38+2.2%
VPS goals ↓
Inter Turku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.9%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = Inter Turku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.15
Inter Turku
1.90
HJK Helsinki
1.70
Gnistan
1.60
AC Oulu
1.50
VPS
1.50
Turku PS
1.45
Lahti
1.38
Ilves
1.25
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.75
Mariehamn
0.40
VPS is 0.40 points worse than Inter Turku in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.80
Ilves
1.65
HJK Helsinki
1.60
Gnistan
1.60
VPS
1.40
Inter Turku
1.40
Turku PS
1.35
AC Oulu
1.20
SJK
1.19
Lahti
1.19
FF Jaro
0.90
Mariehamn
0.55
VPS and Inter Turku are level in goals scored per game (both 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.80
KuPS
0.90
Lahti
0.90
VPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.10
HJK Helsinki
1.15
AC Oulu
1.25
Gnistan
1.30
SJK
1.57
Ilves
1.70
FF Jaro
2.05
Mariehamn
2.05
VPS is 0.25 goals worse than Inter Turku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
VPS is 10.1 percentage points worse than Inter Turku in terms of average possession (48% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 3.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter Turku
For 5.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.6
9.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
22.3
21.5
23.2
vs Stronger (10)
8.5
9.7
5.0
1.7
3.0
0.4
23.8
22.7
27.0
vs Similar (28)
8.7
7.8
9.3
1.2
0.9
1.4
21.6
20.8
22.2
vs Weaker (12)
9.2
8.7
11.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
22.5
21.3
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
16%
16%
16%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
84%
84%
84%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.6
10.8
1.1
0.9
1.2
19.6
22.1
17.9
vs Stronger (5)
12.3
15.0
11.0
1.6
0.5
2.3
19.7
23.0
18.0
vs Similar (26)
9.5
9.8
9.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
20.3
21.7
18.6
vs Weaker (19)
12.6
11.0
13.0
0.9
0.7
1.2
18.3
24.0
17.2
% over line
68%
62%
73%
12%
12%
12%
40%
50%
33%
% under line
32%
38%
27%
88%
88%
88%
60%
50%
67%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
Ilves
9.9
KuPS
9.9
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.1
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
KuPS
21.7
HJK Helsinki
20.7
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.5%
@ 1.82-12.6%
Under 9.5
61.5%
@ 1.90+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
27.9%
Under 21.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
1.07
0.40
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.44
1.29
0.43
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
82.3%
1.33
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+13.3%
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
73.1%
1.55
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.50
+13.7%
-
Under 21.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn