This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
2.04
0.85
1.69
1.07
2.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.75
0.75
1.25
0.75
4.25
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.74
0.89
1.89
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
15% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.1%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-0 â
5.2%
VPS goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
4.2%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.1%
11%
6.2%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.1%
6.3%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.5%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.96
HJK Helsinki
1.96
VPS
1.90
SJK
1.54
Honka
1.45
AC Oulu
1.34
Inter Turku
1.29
Ilves
1.22
Haka
1.19
Lahti
1.07
Mariehamn
0.90
Kooteepee
0.74
Gnistan
0.50
VPS is 0.82 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.07).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
HJK Helsinki
1.85
KuPS
1.52
AC Oulu
1.48
VPS
1.48
SJK
1.32
Haka
1.30
Ilves
1.30
Inter Turku
1.25
Honka
1.10
Mariehamn
1.07
Lahti
0.96
Kooteepee
0.78
Gnistan
0.00
VPS is 0.52 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 0.96).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.74
VPS
0.90
Honka
0.94
HJK Helsinki
0.96
Ilves
1.22
SJK
1.25
Mariehamn
1.38
Inter Turku
1.43
Gnistan
1.50
Lahti
1.52
Haka
1.56
Kooteepee
1.63
AC Oulu
1.79
VPS is 0.62 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.52).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
53%
SJK
52%
Honka
52%
KuPS
52%
VPS
50%
Ilves
50%
Inter Turku
50%
Gnistan
49%
Kooteepee
49%
Lahti
48%
Haka
48%
Mariehamn
47%
VPS is 2.5 percentage points better than Lahti in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 3.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 8.4 · Total 22.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 3.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
8.4
8.7
8.1
1.8
1.6
1.9
21.2
22.0
20.7
vs Stronger (4)
7.0
10.0
5.5
2.8
1.5
4.0
21.7
21.0
22.0
vs Similar (21)
8.9
8.8
9.0
1.5
1.8
1.2
20.6
20.6
20.6
vs Weaker (6)
8.0
7.0
8.5
2.2
1.3
3.0
23.0
30.0
19.5
% over line
25%
29%
22%
29%
21%
35%
50%
57%
44%
% under line
75%
71%
78%
71%
79%
65%
50%
43%
56%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
10.2
11.2
9.3
3.1
2.9
3.4
23.4
25.5
21.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.9
10.0
9.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
21.8
23.8
19.8
vs Similar (19)
10.6
12.5
9.0
2.8
2.4
3.1
24.8
27.2
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
62%
56%
56%
54%
57%
71%
88%
56%
% under line
41%
38%
44%
44%
46%
43%
29%
12%
44%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SJK
11.5
Mariehamn
10.8
HJK Helsinki
10.4
Lahti
10.2
Honka
10.0
Ilves
9.9
Haka
9.9
KuPS
9.6
Inter Turku
8.5
VPS
8.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
5.0
Mariehamn
4.4
HJK Helsinki
4.3
SJK
4.3
Inter Turku
4.1
KuPS
4.1
Haka
4.0
Honka
3.6
VPS
3.4
Ilves
3.4
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mariehamn
26.6
HJK Helsinki
25.1
Lahti
23.4
Inter Turku
22.8
Haka
22.1
Ilves
21.6
VPS
21.2
KuPS
21.2
SJK
19.6
Honka
17.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.7%
Under 21.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.62
0.85
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.70
0.88
1.12
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.89
0.38
1.00
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.84
0.33
1.11
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.83
0.69
0.69
1.41
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.70
0.50
0.62
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.15
0.46
0.69
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.75
0.25
0.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.56
0.78
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
VPS · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. RÃķnnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Lahti · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
VPS and Lahti have a similar squad value (both €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
VPS and Lahti have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
VPS and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
VPS and Lahti have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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HJK Helsinki
KuPS
Honka
SJK
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
Ilves
Haka
Mariehamn
Kooteepee
Gnistan