VPS’s defensive record at home shows a tight contest, conceding just over one goal per game while scoring 1.73. Lahti, on the road, mirrors that balance, averaging 1.67 goals for and 1.33 against against similar opposition. The model sees a 45% chance of a VPS win, 31% for a draw and 24% for a Lahti victory, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% probability.
The suggested picks highlight a very low-goal environment: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 7% edge), Under 5.5 (97.5% with a 7% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 7% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Lahti snatched a 1-0 win, extending their two-game winning run while VPS left home after a defeat. The model had favoured a home win with a 45% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away triumph. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.6%. The model’s selections all performed as predicted, despite the favourite’s misjudgement.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
VPS win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.11
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.21
Dafabet
2.16
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.46
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.63
Dafabet
3.55
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.54
Betano
3.50
Lahti win✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.15
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.20
1.07
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
3.00
1.14
3.33
0.67
2.75
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.81
1.05
1.73
1.27
1.90
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.71
0.79
1.56
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.33
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.00
1.80
0.60
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.23-9.8%
Under 1.5
34.0%
@ 3.85+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
BetVictor
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.9%
@ 1.77-15.2%
Under 2.5
62.1%
@ 2.01+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.04
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.2%
@ 2.86-14.3%
Under 3.5
81.8%
@ 1.38+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
10Bet
2.90
Unibet
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.62-12.4%
No
55.4%
@ 2.15+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
BetVictor
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
No
William Hil
2.25
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.20+7.1%
1-0
13.1%@ 7.88+7.5%
0-0
12.3%@ 10.86+8.2%
2-0
9.4%@ 10.04+5.0%
0-1 ✓
8.6%@ 9.89+4.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.86+2.9%
1-2
5.8%@ 9.98+1.4%
0-2
4.5%@ 15.75+1.7%
VPS goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.6%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.4%
8.5%
3.8%
1.1%
0.3%
3
4.1%
3.7%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
VPS is 0.05 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
VPS is 0.14 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
VPS is 0.14 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
VPS is 8.3 percentage points worse than Lahti in terms of average possession (48% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 3.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 5.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.6
9.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
22.3
21.5
23.2
vs Stronger (11)
8.5
9.7
5.0
1.5
3.0
0.3
23.8
22.7
27.0
vs Similar (34)
8.6
7.8
9.3
1.1
0.9
1.2
22.2
22.2
22.2
vs Weaker (5)
9.7
9.0
11.0
1.4
1.5
1.3
20.7
18.0
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
16%
17%
15%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
84%
83%
85%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.9
7.0
0.8
1.0
0.5
22.6
21.6
25.0
vs Stronger (7)
13.0
13.0
-
0.4
1.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (36)
7.8
8.2
7.0
1.0
1.2
0.7
22.3
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
57%
33%
12%
16%
8%
80%
71%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
67%
88%
84%
92%
20%
29%
0%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
VPS or Draw✗ Miss
75.6%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.32
Edge
+4.8%
45%
31%
24%
covers VPS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
VPS or Lahti✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.7%
45%
31%
24%
covers VPS + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Lahti✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.69
Edge
-0.1%
45%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.72
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
VPS over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.9%
@ 1.19-5.0%
Under
27.1%
@ 4.20+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.45
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.25
BetVictor
4.20
VPS over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 1.99-9.4%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.76+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
VPS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.10-8.2%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.20+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.49
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
VPS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 9.17-5.8%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.50
Superbet
8.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Lahti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.4%
@ 1.32-10.7%
Under
40.6%
@ 3.10+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.13
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Lahti over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.8%
@ 2.60-13.1%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.45+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Lahti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 6.21-8.7%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.09+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Lahti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 14.83-5.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to VPS, so a minus line means VPS give that many goals of a start and Lahti receive them. At -1, VPS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal VPS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (VPS)Actual: Lahti
VPS -2
7.7%
@ 7.92-3.6%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 5.88-1.5%
Lahti +2
78.7%
@ 1.22+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (VPS)Actual: Lahti
VPS -1
21.3%
@ 3.76-2.4%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.80-0.1%
Lahti +1
55.3%
@ 1.69+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (VPS)Actual: Draw
VPS +1
75.6%
@ 1.33+8.1%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 4.81-3.0%
Lahti -1
8.7%
@ 6.47-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Handicap +2 (VPS)Actual: VPS
VPS +2
91.3%
@ 1.08+5.9%
Draw +2
6.5%
@ 10.00-2.7%
Lahti -2
2.2%
@ 17.00-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.33
0.47
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.86
2.33
0.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.52
1.00
0.55
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.93
0.36
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.00
0.20
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.33-2.2%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 3.10+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.56-8.2%
Under 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.46+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 6.04-6.7%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.09+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 1.83-5.6%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.89+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.20-7.1%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.13+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.10
10Bet
4.75
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 13.33-5.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.8%
@ 2.17-1.9%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.61+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 7.26-1.8%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.07+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 20.17-3.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.92
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.20-3.3%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 4.13+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 1.96-8.5%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.77+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 3.98-7.0%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.21+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.5%
@ 1.60-6.3%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.20+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.06
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 3.82-8.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.22+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 9.56-6.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.83-5.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.87+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 5.13-6.9%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.13+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 14.50-4.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
BetVictor
1.02
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.8%
1.38
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
+14.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.2%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
+13.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.6%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
75.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-3.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-5.0%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.46
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. Räisänen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. Rönnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. Räisänen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. Räisänen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Räisänen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
José Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tòfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
Tòfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
VPS and Lahti have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
VPS and Lahti have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
VPS and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
VPS and Lahti have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn