This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
1.50
1.17
1.17
0.67
1.83
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.62
1.25
1.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.5%
VPS goals ↓
Mariehamn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.4%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.9%
8.2%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = Mariehamn goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
HJK Helsinki
2.15
KuPS
2.11
Honka
1.81
Haka
1.66
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.42
Mariehamn
1.26
Ilves
1.26
SJK
1.25
Inter Turku
1.14
Lahti
0.78
HIFK Helsinki
0.33
VPS is 0.16 points better than Mariehamn in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.26).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Honka
1.96
VPS
1.94
AC Oulu
1.66
KuPS
1.59
Ilves
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.52
Mariehamn
1.52
Haka
1.52
Inter Turku
1.43
SJK
1.18
Lahti
0.96
HIFK Helsinki
0.74
VPS is 0.42 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.52).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.78
HJK Helsinki
0.85
Honka
1.00
SJK
1.39
AC Oulu
1.41
Haka
1.45
VPS
1.48
Inter Turku
1.50
Mariehamn
1.59
Ilves
1.59
Lahti
2.04
HIFK Helsinki
2.59
VPS is 0.11 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.59).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
KuPS
57%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
51%
Honka
51%
Haka
50%
Inter Turku
49%
Lahti
49%
VPS
49%
HIFK Helsinki
48%
Ilves
47%
Mariehamn
47%
VPS is 1.6 percentage points better than Mariehamn in terms of average possession (49% vs 47%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 4.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 7.2 · Total 20.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
For 5.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 4.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
8.5
10.2
7.3
2.8
2.4
3.1
20.5
20.8
20.3
vs Stronger (2)
6.0
10.0
2.0
3.5
3.0
4.0
22.0
21.0
23.0
vs Similar (8)
9.3
10.3
8.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
20.3
20.7
20.0
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
4.5
-
4.5
19.5
-
19.5
% over line
30%
50%
17%
42%
20%
57%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
70%
50%
83%
58%
80%
43%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
10.5
10.2
10.7
4.0
4.8
3.2
25.3
27.6
23.3
vs Stronger (8)
10.4
10.8
10.0
4.4
5.5
3.2
24.9
26.5
23.2
vs Similar (4)
10.7
8.0
12.0
3.2
3.5
3.0
26.3
32.0
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
40%
33%
50%
67%
33%
73%
80%
67%
% under line
64%
60%
67%
50%
33%
67%
27%
20%
33%
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HJK Helsinki
11.6
SJK
10.8
Mariehamn
10.5
HIFK Helsinki
10.0
Honka
9.9
Haka
9.8
Lahti
9.3
KuPS
9.2
Ilves
8.9
VPS
8.5
Inter Turku
8.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
5.1
HIFK Helsinki
4.4
Mariehamn
4.4
Inter Turku
4.3
HJK Helsinki
4.2
SJK
4.1
KuPS
4.1
Haka
3.7
Ilves
3.5
VPS
3.4
Honka
3.3
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HJK Helsinki
26.0
Mariehamn
25.3
Lahti
22.8
Inter Turku
22.6
HIFK Helsinki
21.7
Ilves
21.4
Haka
21.0
KuPS
20.7
VPS
20.5
SJK
16.5
Honka
16.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.2%
Under 9.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.50
0.20
0.40
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.08
0.50
0.83
0.17
1.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.75
0.40
1.00
2.00
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.62
0.50
1.00
2.25
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
VPS · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. RÃķnnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Mariehamn · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
A. Larsson29%
M. HyvÃķnen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
VPS's squad is €1m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€3m vs €2m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
VPS and Mariehamn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
VPS and Mariehamn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
VPS and Mariehamn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
Honka
Haka
AC Oulu
SJK
Ilves
Inter Turku
Lahti
HIFK Helsinki