Vulturii Cutezători are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 64% chance of a home win and a 17% chance of a draw. The 19% probability of an away victory is the lowest, so the model’s pick is a home win. Their recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 5-1 victory over Zimbru II, underpins this confidence, while FCM Ungheni’s recent loss and weaker away form against stronger opponents make them the underdog. The expected total of 4.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 3-1, which carries a 7.1% probability. Vulturii’s home scoring and conceding figures are strong against Ungheni’s away form, which shows 2.07 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3%, Over 1.5 at 95.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.8%, Home +2 handicap at 91.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.0%, Under 7.5 at 89.8% and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 87.8%. The model therefore sees a 64% home win, 17% draw and 19% away win as the only possible outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători win
64.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.77
3.07
1.57
2.06
1.94
vs Stronger (26)
2.65
1.65
3.33
1.50
2.07
1.79
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
95.2%
Under 1.5
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
84.5%
Under 2.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
77.7%
No
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
4-1
5.3%
1-1
5.2%
4-2
4.4%
3-0
4.2%
Vulturii Cutezători goals ↓
FCM Ungheni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
1
2.3%
5.2%
3.9%
2.2%
0.9%
2
4.2%
7.1%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
3
4.2%
7.1%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
4
3.2%
5.3%
4.4%
2.5%
1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vulturii Cutezători goals (down), columns = FCM Ungheni goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.42 points worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.64 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 2.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.23 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vulturii Cutezători or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători or FCM Ungheni
83.0%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FCM Ungheni
35.9%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Draw + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
57.7%
Under
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vulturii Cutezători, so a minus line means Vulturii Cutezători give that many goals of a start and FCM Ungheni receive them. At -1, Vulturii Cutezători must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vulturii Cutezători win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -2
28.2%
Draw -2
17.5%
FCM Ungheni +2
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -1
45.7%
Draw -1
18.4%
FCM Ungheni +1
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +1
81.1%
Draw +1
10.1%
FCM Ungheni -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +2
91.2%
Draw +2
5.4%
FCM Ungheni -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.80
1.79
0.86
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.50
0.85
1.92
0.83
1.14
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.5%
Under 1.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.0%
Under
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.29
0.71
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
0.81
1.42
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.9%
Under 1.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.7%
Under 2.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →