Vulturii Cutezători, fresh from an unbeaten run that saw them beat Zimbru II 5-1, are set to host Iskra, who are riding a three-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over FCM Ungheni. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, followed by a 24% draw and a 31% away win. The expected total is 3.4 goals, so a 3-goal match is most likely, with a 1-1 scoreline at 10.6% the single most probable result. Vulturii Cutezători average 1.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Iskra, playing away against weaker teams, average 1.27 scored and 2.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.2%), Under 5.5 (87.5%), Over 1.5 (85.9%), Home +2 handicap (85.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.4%
Under 2.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
0-0
4.4%
Vulturii Cutezători goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.2%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
1
5.4%
11%
7.3%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.7%
5.6%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vulturii Cutezători goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.31 points worse than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.01 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.15 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vulturii Cutezători or Draw
69.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători or Iskra
75.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iskra
54.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vulturii Cutezători, so a minus line means Vulturii Cutezători give that many goals of a start and Iskra receive them. At -1, Vulturii Cutezători must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vulturii Cutezători win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -2
11.5%
Draw -2
13.9%
Iskra +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -1
25.4%
Draw -1
19.8%
Iskra +1
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +1
69.5%
Draw +1
15.9%
Iskra -1
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +2
85.3%
Draw +2
9.1%
Iskra -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
Under 1.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.3%
Under 2.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.8%
Under 0.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.1%
Under 1.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.9%
Under 2.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti