Vulturii Cutezători are the clear favorites, with the model assigning an 82% chance of a home win. Their recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 5-1 victory over Zimbru II, underpins this confidence, especially as they play at home against an opponent whose away form has been weak. The expected total of 4.9 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 3-1, with a 7.7% probability. Home side Vulturii average 2.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against similar opposition, while Spartanii Selemet average only 0.86 goals scored and 2.86 conceded away. The model’s suggested picks include Home over 0.5 goals at 97.6%, Home +2 handicap at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Over 1.5 at 95.9%, Home or Draw at 93.0%, Home +1 handicap at 93.0%, Home or Away at 89.4%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 88.6%. The probabilities for the match outcome are 82% for a home win, 11% for a draw, and 7% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători win
82.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet win
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.80
1.29
2.64
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
3.64
1.17
4.17
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (36%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
95.9%
Under 1.5
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
86.5%
Under 2.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
71.8%
Under 3.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.6%
No
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.7%
4-1
7.1%
3-0
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
5.3%
2-0
5.3%
5-0
4.5%
Vulturii Cutezători goals ↓
Spartanii Selemet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
1
2.5%
3.7%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
2
5.3%
6.2%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
3
6.5%
7.7%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
4
6.1%
7.1%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vulturii Cutezători goals (down), columns = Spartanii Selemet goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.45 points worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.59 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 2.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.41 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vulturii Cutezători or Draw
93.0%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători or Spartanii Selemet
89.4%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
17.6%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Draw + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
97.6%
Under
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vulturii Cutezători, so a minus line means Vulturii Cutezători give that many goals of a start and Spartanii Selemet receive them. At -1, Vulturii Cutezători must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vulturii Cutezători win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -2
49.1%
Draw -2
18.3%
Spartanii Selemet +2
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -1
67.4%
Draw -1
15.0%
Spartanii Selemet +1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +1
93.0%
Draw +1
4.5%
Spartanii Selemet -1
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +2
97.5%
Draw +2
1.8%
Spartanii Selemet -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.25
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
2.07
0.67
2.67
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.64
1.21
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.25
0.80
0.60
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home over 0.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Floreşti