Vulturii Cutezători, fresh from a 5-game unbeaten run that saw them score five against Zimbru II, are set to host Univer Comrat, who have just returned from a win that yielded six goals against Spartanii Selemet. The model predicts a home win with a 49% probability, a draw at 19%, and an away win at 31%. The most likely outcome is a 2-2 draw, with a 6.7% chance. The expected total goals hover at 4.8, and the model favours a high-scoring affair, with a 34% probability of six or more goals. Vulturii’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and concede 2.71 against stronger opposition, while Univer Comrat’s away form boasts 3.0 goals scored and 1.62 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (95.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (92.8%), Under 7.5 (89.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.0%), Over 2.5 (85.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (83.4%), Home +2 handicap (82.8%), and BTTS Yes (82.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat win
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.18
1.93
2.06
1.94
2.33
1.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.89
1.40
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.63
1.95
2.36
2.18
3.00
1.62
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (34%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
95.5%
Under 1.5
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
85.3%
Under 2.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
69.8%
Under 3.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
82.2%
No
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.7%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
1-1
5.3%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
4.8%
3-3
4.2%
Vulturii Cutezători goals ↓
Univer Comrat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.3%
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
1
1.8%
5.3%
5.1%
3.6%
1.9%
2
3.0%
6.3%
6.7%
4.8%
2.5%
3
2.6%
5.6%
5.9%
4.2%
2.2%
4
1.7%
3.7%
3.9%
2.7%
1.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vulturii Cutezători goals (down), columns = Univer Comrat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.23 points worse than Univer Comrat in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.05 goals worse than Univer Comrat in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.10 goals worse than Univer Comrat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vulturii Cutezători or Draw
68.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
19%
31%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători or Univer Comrat
80.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
19%
31%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Univer Comrat
50.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
19%
31%
covers Draw + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
92.8%
Under
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 3.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vulturii Cutezători, so a minus line means Vulturii Cutezători give that many goals of a start and Univer Comrat receive them. At -1, Vulturii Cutezători must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vulturii Cutezători win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -2
17.3%
Draw -2
14.2%
Univer Comrat +2
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători -1
31.5%
Draw -1
17.7%
Univer Comrat +1
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +1
68.6%
Draw +1
14.2%
Univer Comrat -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vulturii Cutezători)
Vulturii Cutezători +2
82.8%
Draw +2
9.3%
Univer Comrat -2
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.92
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.89
1.60
0.80
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
1.00
1.07
1.20
1.42
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.80
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
1.06
1.00
1.40
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti