Vulturii Cutezători are set to host Zimbru II in a high-scoring affair, with the model predicting a 4.4 average goal tally and a 27 % chance of six or more goals. The most likely final score is 2-1 for the home side, a 7.4 % probability. Home advantage is clear: Vulturii average 3.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents, while Zimbru II, playing away, averages 2.5 scored and only 1.0 conceded. The model favours a home win (51 %), with a draw at 20 % and an away win at 29 %. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9 %), Over 1.5 (93.8 %), Under 7.5 (92.4 %), Home over 0.5 goals (91.7 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (90.5 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (87.9 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (87.9 %). Vulturii come off a draw, while Zimbru II return after three straight defeats.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Vulturii Cutezători secured a 5-1 home win, extending their unbeaten run with a decisive victory over Zimbru II. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct, reflecting the 51% probability assigned. The match delivered on the model’s selections: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Over 1.5 at 93.8%, Under 7.5 at 92.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.7%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 89.1%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 87.8%. Only Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, with a probability of 88.0%. The final score matched the model’s expectation of a high-scoring affair, confirming the 6+ total goals forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
2.58
1.38
2.23
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (10)
1.60
2.00
1.50
1.67
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.88
1.69
1.86
1.36
1.92
2.08
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (7)
2.14
0.86
2.00
0.80
2.50
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.8%
Under 1.5
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.1%
Under 2.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
78.3%
No
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.4%
2-2
6.9%
1-1
6.5%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
4.3%
2-0
3.9%
Vulturii Cutezători goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
1.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.7%
1
2.6%
6.5%
5.6%
3.5%
1.6%
2
3.9%
7.4%
6.9%
4.3%
2.0%
3
3.3%
6.1%
5.8%
3.6%
1.7%
4
2.0%
3.8%
3.6%
2.2%
1.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vulturii Cutezători goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.14 points worse than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.08 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Vulturii Cutezători is 0.19 goals worse than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vulturii Cutezători or Draw✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători or Zimbru II✓ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Vulturii Cutezători + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zimbru II✗ Miss
49.0%
Avg Implied -
51%
20%
29%
covers Draw + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.7%
Under
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vulturii Cutezători, so a minus line means Vulturii Cutezători give that many goals of a start and Zimbru II receive them. At -1, Vulturii Cutezători must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vulturii Cutezători win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.77
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.14
0.40
0.20
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.9%
Under 0.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.7%
Under 1.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.1%
Under 2.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.13
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
35% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.92
1.07
0.79
0.92
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.71
1.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.5%
Under 0.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.1%
Under 1.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.9%
Under 2.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →