The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Llapi, 24% for a draw and 22% for Vushtrria. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the single most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. Vushtrria, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, while Llapi, on the road, has a similar offensive output but faces a tougher opponent. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Under 5.5 (91.0%), Away +2 handicap (90.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.7%) and Away over 0.5 goals (84.9%). Vushtrria’s recent form shows three losses followed by two wins, ending 0-1 against Drita, while Llapi also lost three in a row before winning twice, last time 0-4 to Prishtina. The match is expected to be tight, with the model’s pick pointing to a Llapi victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vushtrria win
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llapi win
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vushtrria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.90
1.94
0.94
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (30)
1.63
0.90
1.94
0.94
1.29
0.86
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.07
0.93
1.31
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
0.00
2.00
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.36
1.15
0.85
1.33
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
7.9%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
6.0%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Vushtrria goals ↓
Llapi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
7.9%
8.4%
5.3%
2.5%
1
4.5%
11%
9.8%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.2%
6.0%
5.7%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.2%
2.4%
2.2%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vushtrria goals (down), columns = Llapi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Vushtrria is 0.96 points worse than Llapi in terms of average points per game (0.45 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Vushtrria is 0.88 goals worse than Llapi in terms of goals scored per game (0.42 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Vushtrria is 2.53 goals worse than Llapi in terms of goals conceded per game (3.89 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vushtrria or Draw
46.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
53%
covers Vushtrria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria or Llapi
75.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
53%
covers Vushtrria + Llapi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Llapi
77.7%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
53%
covers Draw + Llapi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vushtrria, so a minus line means Vushtrria give that many goals of a start and Llapi receive them. At -1, Vushtrria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vushtrria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vushtrria)
Vushtrria -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.3%
Llapi +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vushtrria)
Vushtrria -1
9.1%
Draw -1
13.2%
Llapi +1
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vushtrria)
Vushtrria +1
46.8%
Draw +1
22.0%
Llapi -1
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vushtrria)
Vushtrria +2
68.8%
Draw +2
16.6%
Llapi -2
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vushtrria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.07
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
0.37
1.07
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.64
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.52
0.69
0.38
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.1%
Under 0.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.2%
Under 1.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vushtrria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (30)
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.60
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.43
0.57
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.84
0.46
0.46
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.2%
Under 0.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.3%
Under 1.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Vushtrria's squad is €5m less valuable than Llapi's (€0m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Vushtrria's attack is €2m less valuable than Llapi's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Vushtrria and Llapi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Vushtrria's defence is €2m less valuable than Llapi's (€0m vs €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Malisheva
Gjilani
Prishtina
Drita
Ballkani
Dukagjini
Drenica Skënderaj
Feronikeli