The encounter between Waalwijk and NAC Breda is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 36% for a home victory, 26% for a draw, and 38% for NAC Breda to come out on top. The expected total of goals is 3.1, yet the most likely aggregate is 2 goals, with a 23% chance of that total. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.1% probability. Waalwijk, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. NAC Breda, on the road against a comparable side, averages only 0.6 goals scored and concedes 1.8. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3% with a 3% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (91.9% with a 3% edge). Both sides have shown recent resilience, with Waalwijk unbeaten in five and NAC Breda drawing their last match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Waalwijk win
34.5%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.79
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.84
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.69
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.81
10Bet
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
NAC Breda win
39.6%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.23
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Dafabet
2.26
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Waalwijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.43
1.93
1.36
2.12
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
2.40
2.67
1.33
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
2.04
1.24
1.73
1.36
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.67
1.19
1.50
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
2.17
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.45
1.00
1.10
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.13-0.1%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 5.39+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.83
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.46-3.6%
Under 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.55+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Under
BetVictor
2.70
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.6%
@ 2.18-5.3%
Under 3.5
62.4%
@ 1.64+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
BetVictor
1.66
Betano
1.65
Both teams to score
Yes
63.1%
@ 1.41-2.3%
No
36.9%
@ 2.67+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
No
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.77
Betfair
2.70
William Hil
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 7.29+5.7%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.62+3.5%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.72+3.5%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.09+2.0%
0-1
6.2%@ 11.33+2.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 13.37+2.5%
1-0
5.6%@ 12.73+2.1%
0-0
5.6%@ 16.00+2.8%
Waalwijk goals ↓
NAC Breda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.2%
5.8%
3.1%
1.3%
1
5.6%
12%
8.7%
4.7%
1.9%
2
5.0%
8.1%
6.5%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.5%
4.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waalwijk goals (down), columns = NAC Breda goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Waalwijk is 0.05 points worse than NAC Breda in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Waalwijk is 0.05 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Waalwijk is 0.03 goals worse than NAC Breda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waalwijk
For 3.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
For 7.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waalwijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.7
2.8
2.4
3.1
22.8
21.3
24.4
vs Stronger (9)
10.2
10.8
9.5
2.0
1.4
2.8
21.2
19.2
23.8
vs Similar (41)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.0
2.7
3.2
23.2
21.8
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
52%
48%
38%
24%
52%
50%
39%
61%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
62%
76%
48%
50%
61%
39%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.7
4.1
3.2
22.9
23.0
22.8
vs Stronger (17)
9.9
10.3
9.7
3.8
3.7
3.9
23.2
21.6
24.3
vs Similar (32)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.7
4.3
2.8
22.8
23.6
21.6
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
52%
62%
42%
48%
62%
33%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
52%
38%
67%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.7%
@ 1.67+2.3%
Under 9.5
42.3%
@ 2.08-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Waalwijk or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied 58.5% · @ 1.60
Edge
+1.6%
34%
26%
40%
covers Waalwijk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Waalwijk or NAC Breda
74.2%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.9%
34%
26%
40%
covers Waalwijk + NAC Breda
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or NAC Breda
65.7%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.41
Edge
-0.7%
34%
26%
40%
covers Draw + NAC Breda
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
SBO
1.40
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
@ 1.20+0.2%
Under
22.4%
@ 4.11-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Waalwijk over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
@ 2.00-2.3%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.74+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Waalwijk over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
@ 4.21-3.0%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.19+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Pinnacle
4.26
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Waalwijk over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
@ 9.30-3.6%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.05+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
NAC Breda over/under 0.5
Over
80.4%
@ 1.15-0.6%
Under
19.6%
@ 4.88+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.75
NAC Breda over/under 1.5
Over
48.4%
@ 1.78-3.9%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.95+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
NAC Breda over/under 2.5
Over
22.4%
@ 3.43-4.6%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.27+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
NAC Breda over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
@ 7.18-4.7%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.07+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.70
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Waalwijk, so a minus line means Waalwijk give that many goals of a start and NAC Breda receive them. At -1, Waalwijk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Waalwijk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Waalwijk)
Waalwijk -2
6.4%
@ 11.05-1.8%
Draw -2
10.4%
@ 7.80-1.2%
NAC Breda +2
83.3%
@ 1.13+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
9.70
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Away
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Waalwijk)
Waalwijk -1
16.7%
@ 5.26-0.3%
Draw -1
17.5%
@ 4.66-1.7%
NAC Breda +1
65.7%
@ 1.40+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Waalwijk)
Waalwijk +1
60.1%
@ 1.60+4.2%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.20-2.2%
NAC Breda -1
20.8%
@ 3.94-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.90
Handicap +2 (Waalwijk)
Waalwijk +2
79.2%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Draw +2
12.3%
@ 6.33-1.9%
NAC Breda -2
8.5%
@ 8.10-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
6.75
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Away
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.44
0.64
0.36
1.14
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.88
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.24-0.3%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.70+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.8%
@ 2.15-2.4%
Under 1.5
59.2%
@ 1.64+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 4.73-5.5%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.15+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Under
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.8%
@ 1.87+6.1%
Under
44.2%
@ 1.84-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 5.33+0.4%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.12-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
@ 14.08-1.8%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.3%
@ 1.73-12.4%
Under
58.7%
@ 2.01+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
@ 4.58-10.0%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.16+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
@ 12.08-5.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.93
1.07
0.93
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.80
1.09
1.00
1.14
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.69
0.62
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.89
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.5%
@ 1.12-0.0%
Under 0.5
17.5%
@ 5.30+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.69-3.9%
Under 1.5
48.7%
@ 2.07+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.3%
@ 3.10-3.6%
Under 2.5
73.7%
@ 1.32+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.2%
@ 1.60+5.2%
Under
36.8%
@ 2.21-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.11
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.6%
@ 3.85+3.6%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.22-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 9.75-4.2%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.7%
@ 1.48-10.0%
Under
47.3%
@ 2.49+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.40
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
@ 3.29-12.3%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.29+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
@ 8.22-6.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.30
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+3.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+4.7%
Under 5.5
90.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.16
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+10.0%
Under 5.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
+5.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+12.3%
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
-
+3.0%
Over 1.5
82.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.09
-0.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+3.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-0.6%
Under 4.5
79.4%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+4.6%
Home +2 handicap
79.2%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+4.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
77.6%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+4.6%
Under 4.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.24
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.3%
Home or Away
74.2%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-0.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
+3.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-3.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waalwijk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Keyan Varela67%
Finn Stokkers33%
Haye Van Gemert33%
Yorem van der Veen25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Jochem Nap0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordy de Wijs50%
Loek Postma33%
Azzedine Dkidak25%
Jochem Nap25%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jesse van de Haar25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Finn Stokkers33%
Keyan Varela33%
Juan Familia-Castillo25%
Thijs van Leeuwen25%
Ryan Fage25%
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
NAC Breda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Waalwijk's squad is €2m less valuable than NAC Breda's (€8m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Waalwijk and NAC Breda have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Waalwijk's midfield is €1m less valuable than NAC Breda's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Waalwijk and NAC Breda have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht