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Waalwijk vs Willem II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2026
Time: 16:45
Final 0-1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
Vs
30%
25%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Willem II
Willem II
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Waalwijk a 30% win probability against Willem II in the Netherlands: Eerste Divisie on 2026-05-05, with 25% for the draw and 45% for Willem II. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Waalwijk finished 0-1 against Willem II (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 25% draw and 45% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Waalwijk win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Willem II win✓ Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

WaalwijkWaalwijk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W22D23L31W22D50W15L41W11D11DH·JON13/03A·ALM17/03H·DEN21/03A·MVV03/04A·HEL06/04H·EMM10/04A·ADO17/04H·JON24/04A·ROD28/04H·ROD01/05
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.572.071.531.731.60
vs Stronger (12)1.922.082.002.001.862.14
vs Similar (18)1.891.222.101.301.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Willem IIWillem II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W11D31W50W02L10W10W21W30W21WA·EMM27/02H·DEN08/03A·FC 13/03A·MVV22/03H·DE 28/03H·JON03/04A·ROD06/04H·ALM12/04H·JON17/04A·DOR24/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.031.380.881.931.21
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (18)1.671.001.500.901.881.12
vs Weaker (11)1.731.091.400.802.001.33
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
0-1 ✓
6.0%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
Waalwijk goals ↓
Willem II goals →
01234
04.9%6.0%6.3%3.8%1.7%
14.6%11%9.1%5.5%2.5%
24.1%7.3%6.6%4.0%1.8%
32.0%3.5%3.2%1.9%0.9%
40.7%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waalwijk goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Waalwijk is 0.39 points worse than Willem II in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.84).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
Jong Ajax
1.32
VVV Venlo
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Waalwijk is 0.24 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Waalwijk is 0.45 goals worse than Willem II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.05).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Waalwijk is 2.3 percentage points better than Willem II in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

WaalwijkWaalwijk

For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

16092947187326153317991111115578416H·JONA·ADOH·EMMA·HELA·MVVH·DENA·ALMH·JONA·VVVH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

6031214244212311313356435114H·JONA·ADOH·EMMA·HELA·MVVH·DENA·ALMA·VVVH·FC A·CAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.0

⚠️ Fouls

30010611198151218121691071271071271216302330281919171919H·JONA·ADOH·EMMA·HELA·MVVH·DENA·ALMH·JONA·VVVH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Willem IIWillem II

For 5.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.1

🚩 Corners

160748847833873217576581116111111103121313A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVA·FC H·DENA·EMM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

6024132221311315136422344613A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVH·DENA·EMMH·ADO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

3407147105916109129176813718168721171426212614203415A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVA·FC H·DENA·EMM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

WaalwijkWaalwijk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.510.610.32.72.62.922.521.023.9
vs Stronger (26)10.711.210.22.72.23.121.319.722.8
vs Similar (24)10.210.010.52.82.92.823.922.625.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line56%58%54%34%24%44%48%38%58%
% under line44%42%46%66%76%56%52%62%42%
This opponent (Willem II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Willem IIWillem II

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.911.010.83.03.12.922.122.821.3
vs Stronger (3)9.710.09.02.32.03.019.019.019.0
vs Similar (35)10.811.210.33.12.93.221.521.721.4
vs Weaker (12)11.810.812.73.14.02.224.327.321.3
% over line62%64%60%38%40%36%52%60%44%
% under line38%36%40%62%60%64%48%40%56%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.8
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.3
Willem II
10.9
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.8
Almere City FC
10.8
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong Ajax
10.6
Emmen
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.5
Waalwijk
10.4
ADO Den Haag
10.4
MVV
10.4
FC Volendam
10.4
Roda
10.2
Vitesse
10.1
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Cambuur
9.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
FC OSS
4.2
Dordrecht
4.2
Cambuur
4.0
Emmen
3.8
Jong Ajax
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
FC Volendam
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Roda
3.4
Jong AZ
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Waalwijk
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.2
De Graafschap
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.1
MVV
3.1
Almere City FC
2.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.4
Vitesse
27.4
Cambuur
27.2
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.8
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Roda
24.8
Jong Ajax
24.6
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.9
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.0
FC Volendam
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.5
Waalwijk
22.3
Willem II
22.1
Almere City FC
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.0%
Under 9.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.2%
Under 21.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (32)
€14m
WI (26)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
ADH (25)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
Waalwijk's squad is €7m less valuable than Willem II's (€7m vs €14m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WI (12)
€9m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
ADH (12)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
CAM (10)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
Waalwijk's attack is €7m less valuable than Willem II's (€3m vs €9m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (7)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
WI (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
Waalwijk and Willem II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (13)
€7m
CAM (11)
€6m
DOR (14)
€6m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
Waalwijk and Willem II have a similar defence value (both €4m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Waalwijk vs Willem II · H/A from WAA
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26AWillem II Vs WAA2-1
17/10/25HWAA Vs Willem II2-3
26/01/25HWAA Vs Willem II2-0
15/09/24AWillem II Vs WAA3-0
06/02/22AWillem II Vs WAA3-1
21/09/21HWAA Vs Willem II1-2
23/04/21AWillem II Vs WAA1-0
17/01/21HWAA Vs Willem II1-1

WaalwijkWaalwijk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/26HWAA Vs Roda1-1
28/04/26ARoda Vs WAA1-1
24/04/26HWAA Vs Jong PSV U214-1
17/04/26AADO Den Haag Vs WAA5-1
10/04/26HWAA Vs Emmen5-0
06/04/26AHelmond Sport Vs WAA2-2
03/04/26AMVV Vs WAA1-3
21/03/26HWAA Vs Den Bosch2-3
17/03/26AAlmere City FC Vs WAA2-2
13/03/26HWAA Vs Jong AZ2-1

Willem IIWillem II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/26ADordrecht Vs WI1-2
17/04/26HWI Vs Jong AZ3-0
12/04/26HWI Vs Almere City FC2-1
06/04/26ARoda Vs WI0-1
03/04/26HWI Vs Jong PSV U211-0
28/03/26HWI Vs De Graafschap0-2
22/03/26AMVV Vs WI0-5
13/03/26AFC OSS Vs WI1-3
08/03/26HWI Vs Den Bosch1-1
27/02/26AEmmen Vs WI0-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD1.36
HomeWLWWD1.56
AwayDWDLD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals3.423.443.40
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.701.841.56
Conceded1.721.601.84
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners10.4810.6210.33
Cards3.193.203.17
Willem II
Willem II
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.48
HomeDLWWW1.48
AwayWWWWW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals2.742.443.04
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %24%12%36%
Scored1.441.281.60
Conceded1.301.161.44
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners10.9411.0410.84
Cards3.213.123.32

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag3889
76%
2.3
9037+53
3.3
79%
74%
42%
10.8
63%
3.8
56%
26.8
87%
11
5242.41.0
60%
2Willem IIWillem II4481
55%
1.8
6746+21
2.6
77%
52%
18%
10.6
61%
3.2
39%
22.1
55%
14
9141.51.0
48%
3CambuurCambuur3878
61%
2.1
7548+27
3.2
79%
58%
39%
10.0
63%
4.0
57%
27.0
82%
12
4262.01.3
58%
4Almere City FCAlmere City FC4468
48%
1.5
8971+18
3.6
89%
73%
55%
11.2
66%
3.1
40%
21.1
50%
10
6132.01.6
48%
5De GraafschapDe Graafschap4064
45%
1.6
7763+14
3.5
88%
68%
55%
12.3
74%
3.3
41%
22.2
53%
9
5121.91.6
56%
6WaalwijkWaalwijk4261
38%
1.5
7463+11
3.3
90%
64%
43%
10.3
55%
3.4
44%
23.4
53%
7
3141.81.5
50%
7RodaRoda4057
35%
1.4
6156+5
2.9
85%
57%
38%
10.5
61%
3.3
43%
24.9
74%
7
3231.51.4
52%
8VitesseVitesse3856
39%
1.5
6455+9
3.1
89%
68%
39%
9.6
55%
4.8
71%
27.8
95%
6
2121.71.4
46%
9Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U213856
45%
1.5
6664+2
3.4
84%
66%
45%
11.2
68%
3.3
42%
24.2
66%
0
0001.71.7
52%
10Den BoschDen Bosch4051
35%
1.3
6775-8
3.5
90%
70%
45%
11.8
71%
3.8
51%
23.1
66%
7
2221.71.9
47%
11DordrechtDordrecht3847
32%
1.2
4856-8
2.7
82%
55%
21%
11.3
68%
4.5
58%
25.3
74%
14
7261.31.5
48%
12FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven3847
37%
1.2
5169-18
3.2
74%
63%
45%
10.9
68%
3.3
39%
23.3
63%
6
2121.31.8
44%
13Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht3846
32%
1.2
5862-4
3.2
76%
61%
45%
9.6
55%
3.1
36%
25.3
68%
0
0001.51.6
48%
14VVV VenloVVV Venlo3845
34%
1.2
5058-8
2.8
76%
61%
34%
10.7
66%
3.7
46%
23.9
58%
6
2131.31.5
49%
15EmmenEmmen3845
32%
1.2
5872-14
3.4
79%
63%
53%
10.6
63%
3.9
54%
25.4
71%
9
4231.51.9
52%
16FC OSSFC OSS3844
29%
1.2
5464-10
3.1
87%
61%
32%
11.8
79%
4.4
58%
29.9
87%
5
2121.41.7
43%
17Jong AZJong AZ3840
32%
1.1
6176-15
3.6
89%
68%
55%
10.8
61%
3.4
42%
23.3
66%
0
0001.62.0
54%
18Helmond SportHelmond Sport3839
26%
1.0
4262-20
2.7
74%
53%
34%
10.8
61%
3.3
46%
25.3
79%
6
2121.11.6
49%
19MVVMVV3838
24%
1.0
4173-32
3.0
74%
61%
45%
10.5
66%
3.2
42%
22.8
58%
6
2131.11.9
44%
20Jong AjaxJong Ajax3835
24%
0.9
5073-23
3.2
79%
63%
42%
10.3
61%
3.8
56%
24.3
61%
0
0001.31.9
52%
21FC VolendamFC Volendam23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
4371.51.5
-
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →

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