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Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2022
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Vs
26%
24%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Annagh United
Annagh United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.3 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance. The favoured result is an away win, with a 49% probability, while a home win is 26% and a draw 24%. Warrenpoint Town, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and two conceded, whereas Annagh United, on a two-game winning streak, has a stronger away form. The model’s selection for the match is Over 1.5 goals, carrying an 84.8% probability. The final score of the last game was 1-0, a home win, and the home side’s recent form shows a draw after a 3-3 draw with Loughgall, while the away side’s recent form includes a 3-1 win over Ballinamallard United. The model’s prediction favours the away side, and the Over 1.5 selection remains the sole suggested pick.

Results analysis

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the away win, failed to materialise. Warrenpoint Town snatched a 1-0 victory, turning a draw-laden home run into a win. The model had given the away side a 49% chance, yet the result was a home triumph. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5, was missed despite an 84.8% probability. The final score of 1-0 confirms the home side’s win, while the model’s prediction was wrong. The game saw a total of one goal, far below the expected 3.3 and the most likely 3-goal outcome. Warrenpoint’s recent form, coming off a draw, proved resilient against a two-game winning Annagh United side.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Warrenpoint Town win✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L11D30W21W21WA·LOU13/08H·DUN20/08A·H&W23/08A·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.331.002.001.501.00
vs Stronger (6)1.331.331.002.001.501.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W21W21W11D41WH·KNO13/08A·INS20/08H·ARD23/08H·LOU27/08A·NEW03/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.200.801.670.673.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.671.002.001.003.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.500.50--
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-3
6.0%
0-0
4.8%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Annagh United goals →
01234
04.8%6.3%6.9%4.4%2.1%
14.2%11%9.4%6.0%2.9%
23.5%6.7%6.4%4.1%1.9%
31.6%3.1%2.9%1.9%0.9%
40.5%1.0%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Annagh United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Warrenpoint Town is 0.32 points better than Annagh United in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.55).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Warrenpoint Town is 0.24 goals better than Annagh United in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Warrenpoint Town is 0.03 goals worse than Annagh United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.13).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W01L10WA·LOU13/08H·DUN20/08A·H&W23/08A·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.001.000.750.25
vs Stronger (6)0.500.500.001.000.750.25
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L00D10W11DH·KNO13/08A·INS20/08H·ARD23/08H·LOU27/08A·NEW03/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.670.000.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L10W10W20W11DA·LOU13/08H·DUN20/08A·H&W23/08A·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.831.001.000.750.75
vs Stronger (6)0.830.831.001.000.750.75
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W21W01L30WH·KNO13/08A·INS20/08H·ARD23/08H·LOU27/08A·NEW03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.401.000.672.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.330.332.001.002.500.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
WT wins
0
Draws
0
AU wins

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United · H/A from WT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22AKnockbreda Vs WT1-2
03/09/22HWT Vs Ards2-1
27/08/22ADergview Vs WT0-3
23/08/22AH&W Welders Vs WT1-1
20/08/22HWT Vs Dundela0-3
13/08/22ALoughgall Vs WT2-0

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22ANewington Youth Vs AU1-4
27/08/22HAU Vs Loughgall1-1
23/08/22HAU Vs Ards2-1
20/08/22AInstitute Vs AU1-2
13/08/22HAU Vs Knockbreda2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.67
HomeLW1.50
AwayLDWW1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.673.002.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %67%100%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored1.331.001.50
Conceded1.332.001.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet17%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Annagh United
Annagh United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.60
HomeWWD2.33
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %80%67%100%
AVG goals3.002.334.00
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %60%33%100%
Over 3.5 %20%0%50%
Scored2.201.673.00
Conceded0.800.671.00
BTTS80%67%100%
Clean Sheet20%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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