The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance of Annagh United triumphing, 28% for Warrenpoint Town and 27% for a draw. The expected total is 2.8 goals, but the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.9% chance. Warrenpoint’s home form shows they average 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded against stronger opposition, while Annagh United, playing away against weaker teams, averages 1.11 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals at 77.9%. The match preview notes Warrenpoint’s recent draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Loughgall and Annagh United’s two-game winning streak, including a 3-1 victory over Ballinamallard United. The predicted outcome remains an away win, with the scoreline 1-1 the most probable.
Results analysis
Warrenpoint Town struggled to find form, coming off a draw in their last outing, while Annagh United entered the match on a two-game winning streak. The model had picked an away win with a 45% probability, and the result confirmed the prediction. The final score was 0-1, an away victory that matched the model’s forecast. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.9% probability, missed, as only one goal was scored. The most likely total of two goals, at 25%, did not materialise, and the most probable scoreline of 1-1, 12.9%, was also missed. The model’s favourite was right, but its single additional pick failed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United win✓ Hit
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Warrenpoint Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.50
1.64
1.57
1.12
1.44
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
1.58
1.36
1.45
0.54
1.69
vs Similar (6)
3.17
1.17
2.67
2.00
3.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.87
1.93
0.87
1.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.00
2.25
1.25
1.83
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.75
1.57
0.43
1.11
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.3%
0-1 ✓
8.5%
0-2
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Annagh United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
8.5%
7.7%
4.0%
1.6%
1
6.3%
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.5%
7.1%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.8%
2.9%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Annagh United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Warrenpoint Town is 0.82 points worse than Annagh United in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Warrenpoint Town is 0.26 goals worse than Annagh United in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Warrenpoint Town is 0.37 goals worse than Annagh United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Warrenpoint Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.62
0.73
0.45
0.23
0.77
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
1.07
0.20
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.43
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.19
1.00
0.14
0.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Warrenpoint Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.79
1.07
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.96
0.64
1.00
0.31
0.92
vs Similar (6)
1.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.57
1.12
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.56
0.57
0.29
0.78
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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Limavady United
H&W Welders
Newington Youth
Institute
Queen's University
Loughgall
Ards
Ballinamallard United
Dundela
Armagh City