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Warrenpoint Town vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Vs
32%
27%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Warrenpoint Town a 32% win probability against Ards in the Northern-Ireland: Championship on 2026-04-25, with 27% for the draw and 41% for Ards. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Warrenpoint Town finished 0-1 against Ards (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 32% home win, 27% draw and 41% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (78%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L12L24L01L03L00D00D02L10WA·LOU28/02A·ANN03/03H·INS07/03H·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.371.291.291.121.44
vs Stronger (20)0.851.851.201.700.502.00
vs Similar (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (7)2.430.291.670.333.000.25
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W23L10W11D30W20W01L21W13LH·BAL28/02H·LIM03/03A·ANN07/03A·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.331.291.431.621.25
vs Stronger (2)1.503.00--1.503.00
vs Similar (14)1.141.430.831.501.381.38
vs Weaker (14)1.791.001.621.382.000.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1 ✓
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
0-2
6.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
07.1%7.7%6.7%3.4%1.3%
16.6%13%8.9%4.5%1.7%
25.1%7.8%5.9%2.9%1.1%
32.3%3.4%2.6%1.3%0.5%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Warrenpoint Town is 0.29 points worse than Ards in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Warrenpoint Town is 0.29 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Warrenpoint Town is 0.05 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (25)
€0m
LOU (33)
€0m
HW (38)
€0m
AC (62)
€0m
WT (32)
€0m
BU (38)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town vs Ards · H/A from WT
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
26/12/25AArds Vs WT0-0
13/09/25HWT Vs Ards2-0
11/04/23AArds Vs WT1-0
21/01/23AArds Vs WT3-5
26/11/22HWT Vs Ards1-4
03/09/22HWT Vs Ards2-1

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs WT0-1
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
14/03/26HWT Vs Annagh United0-1
10/03/26HWT Vs Newington Youth2-4
07/03/26HWT Vs Institute1-2
03/03/26AAnnagh United Vs WT1-0
28/02/26ALoughgall Vs WT1-0

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2
21/03/26HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
14/03/26ADundela Vs ARD1-1
10/03/26ALoughgall Vs ARD0-1
07/03/26AAnnagh United Vs ARD3-2
03/03/26HARD Vs Limavady United2-0
28/02/26HARD Vs Ballinamallard United2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.28
HomeWLLLD1.58
AwayLLDLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%27%
AVG goals2.702.922.50
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.341.581.12
Conceded1.361.331.38
BTTS46%58%35%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.36
HomeWWWLW1.50
AwayLWDWL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals2.762.832.69
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.421.421.42
Conceded1.341.421.27
BTTS52%62%42%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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