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Warrenpoint Town vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-3
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Vs
23%
26%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Warrenpoint Town face a tough test at home against Ards, with the away side looking to build on their recent form. Ards have been consistent in their away performances, scoring an average of 2.14 goals and conceding just 0.43 against weaker opponents. Warrenpoint Town, on the other hand, have struggled at home, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.7 against stronger opponents. The model predicts an away win for Ards, with a 50% probability of victory.

The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 12.5%. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a 77.9% probability of occurring.

In terms of probabilities, Ards are the favourites to win, with a 50% chance of victory. Warrenpoint Town have a 23% chance of winning, while the draw has a 26% probability. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a 77.9% probability.

Results analysis

The win extends Warrenpoint Town's recent run of poor form, having come off a defeat and now suffering a 1-3 loss at home against Ards. The actual result was an away win, which is the same as the model's selection, and it was correct. The model had predicted an away win, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's selection came in, as Ards took the three points. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 77.9%, and this selection hit.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✓ Hit
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L01L03L00D00D02L10W01L03L20WH·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.331.141.211.121.44
vs Stronger (23)0.831.701.181.550.501.83
vs Similar (7)2.140.141.000.003.000.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D30W20W01L21W13L10W31W22DA·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.371.291.501.621.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.111.611.001.501.201.70
vs Weaker (12)2.001.001.671.502.330.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.2%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
5.6%
1-3 ✓
5.5%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
07.3%9.2%8.8%5.0%2.1%
15.6%13%9.7%5.5%2.3%
23.7%6.3%5.3%3.0%1.3%
31.4%2.3%1.9%1.1%0.5%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Warrenpoint Town and Ards are level in average points per game (both 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Warrenpoint Town and Ards are level in goals scored per game (both 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Warrenpoint Town and Ards are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L00D00D02L10W01L01L10WH·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.640.430.500.75
vs Stronger (23)0.390.740.640.550.170.92
vs Similar (7)1.140.140.670.001.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W20W01L10W01L10W10W00DA·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.430.430.430.810.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.440.500.380.380.500.60
vs Weaker (12)0.920.330.500.501.330.17
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D02L00D00D00D00D00D02L10WH·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.500.790.620.69
vs Stronger (23)0.430.960.551.000.330.92
vs Similar (7)1.000.000.330.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L20W00D00D11D12L00D21W22DA·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.930.861.070.810.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.110.621.120.701.10
vs Weaker (12)1.080.671.171.001.000.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
WT wins
1
Draws
4
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town vs Ards · H/A from WT
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HWT Vs Ards0-1
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
26/12/25AArds Vs WT0-0
13/09/25HWT Vs Ards2-0
11/04/23AArds Vs WT1-0
21/01/23AArds Vs WT3-5
26/11/22HWT Vs Ards1-4
03/09/22HWT Vs Ards2-1

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26HWT Vs Armagh City2-0
08/08/26AH&W Welders Vs WT3-0
25/04/26HWT Vs Ards0-1
18/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs WT0-1
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
14/03/26HWT Vs Annagh United0-1
10/03/26HWT Vs Newington Youth2-4

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26HARD Vs Dundela2-2
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2
21/03/26HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
14/03/26ADundela Vs ARD1-1
10/03/26ALoughgall Vs ARD0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.22
HomeLLDLW1.64
AwayLDLWL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%20%
AVG goals2.622.762.48
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.261.560.96
Conceded1.361.201.52
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.40
HomeWWLWD1.52
AwayDWLWW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%43%37%
AVG goals2.883.042.74
Over 1.5 %74%83%67%
Over 2.5 %54%65%44%
Over 3.5 %36%35%37%
Scored1.501.521.48
Conceded1.381.521.26
BTTS54%65%44%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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