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Warrenpoint Town vs Armagh City Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-0
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Vs
65%
20%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Warrenpoint Town is the clear favourite in this Northern-Ireland: Championship match, with a 65% chance of winning at home. The model rates them highly due to Armagh City's weakness when playing at home, as evident from their recent form note. Warrenpoint Town's home scoring and conceding statistics are impressive, with an average of 0 goals scored and 0 conceded at home.

The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Warrenpoint Town, with a probability of 9.8%. Armagh City's away form is concerning, with an average of 0.65 goals scored and 3.59 conceded when playing against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the Home win, with the draw and away win probabilities at 20% and 15% respectively. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a probability of 85%. The home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 15%.

Results analysis

Warrenpoint Town's win extends their run of form, having come off a win and now boasting a convincing 2-0 victory over Armagh City. The final scoreline was a reflection of the model's prediction, with the home win being the actual result. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's call was also backed up by the suggested picks, with Over 1.5 goals hitting, having a probability of 85%. Another suggested pick, the most likely total goals of 3, narrowly missed, but the most likely scores, 2-1, 2-0, and 1-1, were not the outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Warrenpoint Town win✓ Hit
64.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City win✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L24L01L03L00D00D02L10W01L03LH·INS07/03H·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.371.291.291.121.44
vs Stronger (23)0.831.701.181.550.501.83
vs Similar (7)2.430.291.670.333.000.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-806L00D11D18L00D12L00D06L14L11DA·INS28/02H·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.633.130.622.540.653.59
vs Stronger (23)0.743.260.782.560.713.71
vs Similar (7)0.292.710.252.500.333.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
2-0 ✓
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
1-0
7.6%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.3%
2-2
5.0%
0-0
4.6%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Armagh City goals →
01234
04.6%2.9%1.9%0.6%0.2%
17.6%9.4%4.4%1.5%0.4%
29.6%9.8%5.0%1.7%0.4%
37.3%7.4%3.8%1.3%0.3%
44.2%4.2%2.2%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Armagh City goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Warrenpoint Town is 1.00 points better than Armagh City in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Warrenpoint Town is 1.20 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Warrenpoint Town is 0.40 goals worse than Armagh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L01L00D00D02L10W01L01LH·INS07/03H·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.640.500.500.75
vs Stronger (23)0.390.740.640.550.170.92
vs Similar (7)1.140.290.670.331.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L00D00D03L00D01L00D02L01L10WA·INS28/02H·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.201.230.380.770.061.59
vs Stronger (23)0.221.350.440.780.071.71
vs Similar (7)0.140.860.250.750.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L13L00D02L00D00D00D00D00D02LH·INS07/03H·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.640.790.620.69
vs Stronger (23)0.430.960.551.000.330.92
vs Similar (7)1.290.001.000.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L00D11D15L00D11D00D04L13L01LA·INS28/02H·BAL07/03A·LOU16/03A·QUE21/03A·WAR28/03A·ARD10/04A·DUN18/04A·BAL21/04H·INS25/04H·QUE08/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.900.231.770.592.00
vs Stronger (23)0.521.910.331.780.642.00
vs Similar (7)0.141.860.001.750.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Warrenpoint Town and Armagh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
Warrenpoint Town and Armagh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
WT wins
1
Draws
1
AC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town vs Armagh City · H/A from WT
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0
17/01/26AArmagh City Vs WT1-5
15/11/25AArmagh City Vs WT0-2
30/08/25HWT Vs Armagh City3-5

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AH&W Welders Vs WT3-0
25/04/26HWT Vs Ards0-1
18/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs WT0-1
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
14/03/26HWT Vs Annagh United0-1
10/03/26HWT Vs Newington Youth2-4
07/03/26HWT Vs Institute1-2

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HAC Vs Queen's University1-1
25/04/26HAC Vs Institute1-4
21/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs AC6-0
18/04/26ADundela Vs AC0-0
10/04/26AArds Vs AC2-1
28/03/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs AC0-0
21/03/26AQueen's University Vs AC8-1
16/03/26ALoughgall Vs AC1-1
07/03/26HAC Vs Ballinamallard United0-0
28/02/26AInstitute Vs AC6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.22
HomeLLLDL1.58
AwayLDLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%23%
AVG goals2.602.792.42
Over 1.5 %64%67%62%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.241.540.96
Conceded1.361.251.46
BTTS42%54%31%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD0.54
HomeLLDLD0.56
AwayLDLDL0.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%12%12%
AVG goals3.843.364.32
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %72%68%76%
Over 3.5 %44%36%52%
Scored0.960.881.04
Conceded2.882.483.28
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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