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Warrenpoint Town vs Moyola Park Prediction & Stats

Date: 12/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Vs
32%
27%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Warrenpoint Town and Moyola Park is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw and 41 % for an away triumph. The expected total of goals is 2.9, but the most likely total is two, with a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.8 % probability.

Warrenpoint Town, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Moyola Park, on the road, has shown a similar pattern of scoring and conceding against comparable opposition. The recent form narrative is clear: Warrenpoint comes off a 3-0 win over Newry City AFC, while Moyola Park is returning from a 0-2 defeat to Annagh United.

Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Away +2 handicap (85.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.8 %) and Under 4.5 (83.8 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Warrenpoint Town win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park win
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L10W01L03L20W13L30W33DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.071.291.251.38
vs Stronger (23)0.871.701.091.640.671.75
vs Similar (7)2.140.141.000.003.000.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.331.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.331.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Moyola Park goals →
01234
06.9%7.6%6.6%3.4%1.3%
16.5%13%8.9%4.5%1.7%
25.1%7.8%5.9%3.0%1.1%
32.3%3.5%2.6%1.3%0.5%
40.8%1.2%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Moyola Park goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Warrenpoint Town and Moyola Park are level in average points per game (both 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Warrenpoint Town is 0.60 goals better than Moyola Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Warrenpoint Town is 0.40 goals worse than Moyola Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Warrenpoint Town or Draw
59.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Warrenpoint Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town or Moyola Park
72.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Warrenpoint Town + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moyola Park
67.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Warrenpoint Town, so a minus line means Warrenpoint Town give that many goals of a start and Moyola Park receive them. At -1, Warrenpoint Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Warrenpoint Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town -2
5.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
Moyola Park +2
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town -1
14.8%
Draw -1
17.4%
Moyola Park +1
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town +1
59.4%
Draw +1
20.0%
Moyola Park -1
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town +2
79.4%
Draw +2
12.5%
Moyola Park -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L10W01L01L10W01L10W11DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.570.500.500.62
vs Stronger (23)0.350.700.550.640.170.75
vs Similar (7)1.140.140.670.001.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00DA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.600.330.670.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
Under 0.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.0%
Under 1.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D02L10W12L20W22DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.500.790.750.75
vs Stronger (23)0.521.000.551.000.501.00
vs Similar (7)1.000.000.330.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.000.331.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.33--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.8%
Under 1.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.1%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.8%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals97.9%-------
Under 6.597.3%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.3%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals94.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.1%-------
Under 5.592.9%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals91.6%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals89.1%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals87.9%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals87.4%-------
Away +2 handicap85.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals84.8%-------
Under 4.583.8%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals83.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.3%-------
Home +2 handicap79.4%-------
Over 1.579.1%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals78.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.2%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals77.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals73.7%-------
Home or Away72.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
WT wins
0
Draws
0
MP wins

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town vs Moyola Park · H/A from WT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ALoughgall Vs WT3-3
21/08/26ANewry City AFC Vs WT0-3
15/08/26HWT Vs Ards1-3
11/08/26HWT Vs Armagh City2-0
08/08/26AH&W Welders Vs WT3-0
25/04/26HWT Vs Ards0-1
18/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs WT0-1
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HMP Vs Armagh City1-0
22/08/26AAnnagh United Vs MP2-0
15/08/26HMP Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
11/08/26HMP Vs Strabane Athletic1-3
08/08/26ADundela Vs MP2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.18
HomeLDLWL1.46
AwayLWLWD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals2.702.792.62
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.301.501.12
Conceded1.401.291.50
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals2.602.333.00
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.401.002.00
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet40%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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