The contest between Warrenpoint Town and Moyola Park is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw and 41 % for an away triumph. The expected total of goals is 2.9, but the most likely total is two, with a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.8 % probability.
Warrenpoint Town, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Moyola Park, on the road, has shown a similar pattern of scoring and conceding against comparable opposition. The recent form narrative is clear: Warrenpoint comes off a 3-0 win over Newry City AFC, while Moyola Park is returning from a 0-2 defeat to Annagh United.
Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Away +2 handicap (85.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.8 %) and Under 4.5 (83.8 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Warrenpoint Town win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park win
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Warrenpoint Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.07
1.29
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
1.70
1.09
1.64
0.67
1.75
vs Similar (7)
2.14
0.14
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moyola Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Warrenpoint Town goals ↓
Moyola Park goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.6%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.5%
13%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.1%
7.8%
5.9%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.3%
3.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Warrenpoint Town goals (down), columns = Moyola Park goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Warrenpoint Town and Moyola Park are level in average points per game (both 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Warrenpoint Town is 0.60 goals better than Moyola Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Warrenpoint Town is 0.40 goals worse than Moyola Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Warrenpoint Town or Draw
59.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Warrenpoint Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town or Moyola Park
72.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Warrenpoint Town + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moyola Park
67.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Warrenpoint Town, so a minus line means Warrenpoint Town give that many goals of a start and Moyola Park receive them. At -1, Warrenpoint Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Warrenpoint Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town -2
5.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
Moyola Park +2
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town -1
14.8%
Draw -1
17.4%
Moyola Park +1
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town +1
59.4%
Draw +1
20.0%
Moyola Park -1
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Warrenpoint Town)
Warrenpoint Town +2
79.4%
Draw +2
12.5%
Moyola Park -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Warrenpoint Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
0.70
0.55
0.64
0.17
0.75
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.14
0.67
0.00
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moyola Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
Under 0.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.0%
Under 1.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Warrenpoint Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.50
0.79
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (23)
0.52
1.00
0.55
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moyola Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.8%
Under 1.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →