Pythia gives Werder Bremen a 18% win probability against Borussia Dortmund in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-16, with 23% for the draw and 59% for Borussia Dortmund. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (83%), Under 11.5 corners (83%), Over 1.5 (82%), Over 2.5 cards (78%).
Results analysis
Werder Bremen finished 0-2 against Borussia Dortmund (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 18% home win, 23% draw and 59% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (83%), Under 11.5 corners (83%), Over 1.5 (82%), Under 10.5 corners (74%), Under 23.5 fouls (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Werder Bremen win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.30
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.97
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund win✓ Hit
58.8%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.93
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Werder Bremen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.70
1.07
1.73
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
2.40
0.25
3.00
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.27
1.33
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.27
2.47
1.12
1.54
1.46
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.75
1.00
1.25
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.43
1.00
3.00
0.92
1.67
1.11
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.39-8.0%
Under 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.90+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
0-2 ✓
9.4%
0-1
8.3%
1-3
6.7%
0-3
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
Werder Bremen goals ↓
Borussia Dortmund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
8.3%
9.4%
6.3%
3.2%
1
3.9%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.6%
5.2%
5.3%
3.6%
1.8%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Werder Bremen goals (down), columns = Borussia Dortmund goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
Werder Bremen is 1.21 points worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
Werder Bremen is 0.97 goals worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
Werder Bremen is 0.76 goals worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
Werder Bremen is 2.1 percentage points worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Werder Bremen
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Dortmund
For 5.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Werder Bremen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.5
10.4
4.6
4.7
4.5
20.7
21.4
20.0
vs Stronger (17)
9.8
7.2
11.3
4.2
4.8
3.8
19.6
20.0
19.4
vs Similar (33)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.8
4.7
5.0
21.2
21.8
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
52%
64%
68%
64%
72%
46%
52%
40%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
32%
36%
28%
54%
48%
60%
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.4
3.4
2.7
4.2
22.1
21.3
23.0
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
9.5
8.7
2.0
1.5
2.3
24.0
25.0
23.3
vs Similar (11)
9.3
10.2
8.5
4.1
3.2
4.8
21.1
19.8
22.2
vs Weaker (34)
9.0
9.6
8.3
3.4
2.6
4.3
22.2
21.3
23.3
% over line
40%
50%
29%
44%
31%
58%
60%
54%
67%
% under line
60%
50%
71%
56%
69%
42%
40%
46%
33%
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
23.0
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
22.0
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Werder Bremen
20.7
1. FC Köln
20.6
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.0%
Under 9.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.9%
Under 21.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Werder Bremen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.87
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.10
0.00
1.50
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.55
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.24
0.35
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.29
1.42
0.33
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (35)
€619m
BD (33)
€500m
VS (34)
€448m
EF (30)
€357m
VW (33)
€201m
HS (33)
€177m
WB (32)
€168m
BM (33)
€162m
FM0 (31)
€154m
UB (29)
€130m
SP0 (31)
€53m
Werder Bremen's squad is €332m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€168m vs €500m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (15)
€346m
VS (11)
€210m
EF (14)
€183m
BD (9)
€170m
VW (9)
€78m
BM (13)
€64m
HS (15)
€58m
FM0 (10)
€50m
WB (9)
€47m
UB (9)
€37m
SP0 (11)
€10m
Werder Bremen's attack is €123m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€47m vs €170m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (7)
€122m
RL (7)
€104m
VS (6)
€88m
FM0 (6)
€62m
BM (8)
€51m
EF (4)
€50m
WB (5)
€30m
UB (6)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
HS (2)
€21m
SP0 (9)
€21m
Werder Bremen's midfield is €92m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€30m vs €122m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (17)
€208m
RL (13)
€168m
VS (17)
€150m
EF (12)
€124m
VW (18)
€98m
HS (16)
€98m
WB (18)
€91m
UB (14)
€68m
BM (12)
€47m
FM0 (15)
€42m
SP0 (11)
€22m
Werder Bremen's defence is €117m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€91m vs €208m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →