This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.67
1.25
1.75
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (22)
0.82
1.86
1.17
2.00
0.40
1.70
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
1.50
1.00
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.50-8.6%
Under 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.53+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.7%
4-0 ✓
4.5%
Werder Bremen goals ↓
Erzgebirge Aue goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
3.6%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.6%
6.7%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.5%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Werder Bremen goals (down), columns = Erzgebirge Aue goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Werder Bremen is 1.09 points better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Werder Bremen is 0.97 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Werder Bremen is 0.85 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Werder Bremen
For 6.6 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
For 4.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Werder Bremen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.7
9.2
4.5
4.0
5.0
25.3
26.7
23.8
vs Stronger (8)
8.1
8.2
8.0
3.6
3.0
4.2
23.6
20.8
26.5
vs Similar (36)
9.3
9.2
9.5
4.7
4.3
5.2
26.1
27.8
24.2
vs Weaker (6)
8.0
5.5
9.2
4.5
4.0
4.8
22.3
28.5
19.2
% over line
44%
44%
44%
68%
60%
76%
76%
84%
68%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
32%
40%
24%
24%
16%
32%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.8
4.1
3.5
4.8
24.1
22.7
25.5
vs Stronger (33)
8.9
8.5
9.2
3.8
3.0
4.7
23.4
22.7
24.1
vs Similar (17)
9.2
10.8
7.9
4.8
4.5
5.0
25.5
22.6
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
48%
36%
56%
44%
68%
74%
68%
80%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
44%
56%
32%
26%
32%
20%
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.7
SV Sandhausen
11.1
1. FC Heidenheim
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.2
Ingolstadt
10.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.1
1. FC Nürnberg
10.0
Holstein Kiel
9.9
SV Darmstadt 98
9.9
Hannover 96
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
SC Paderborn 07
9.6
Regensburg
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
FC St. Pauli
9.4
Hansa Rostock
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.0
Werder Bremen
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.8
Hansa Rostock
4.7
Regensburg
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.5
Werder Bremen
4.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.4
Karlsruher SC
4.4
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Hamburger SV
4.3
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Erzgebirge Aue
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.0
FC Schalke 04
4.0
Hannover 96
3.9
Ingolstadt
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
28.3
Ingolstadt
27.8
SV Darmstadt 98
26.1
FC St. Pauli
25.6
Karlsruher SC
25.6
Hamburger SV
25.6
Werder Bremen
25.3
SV Sandhausen
25.3
Hansa Rostock
24.9
Hannover 96
24.8
1. FC Nürnberg
24.3
FC Schalke 04
24.1
Erzgebirge Aue
24.1
Dynamo Dresden
24.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
24.0
SC Paderborn 07
23.5
Holstein Kiel
22.6
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.2%
Under 21.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Werder Bremen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.13
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.10
0.71
0.09
0.91
0.10
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.90
0.44
0.88
0.14
0.93
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.00
0.58
1.08
0.10
0.90
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.25
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Werder Bremen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.00
0.60
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.64
0.70
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.81
0.88
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
0.86
0.58
0.92
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Werder Bremen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jens Stage31%
Jovan Milošević23%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Samuel Mbangula11%
Marco Grüll9%
Patrice Čović6%
Olivier Deman6%
Isaac Schmidt5%
Keke Topp5%
Karim Coulibaly4%
Cameron Puertas4%
Marco Friedl3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Felix Agu0%
Yukinari Sugawara0%
Senne Lynen0%
Victor Okoh Boniface0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Stark40%
Leonardo Bittencourt33%
Marco Friedl32%
Julián Malatini27%
Olivier Deman24%
Cameron Puertas21%
Amos Pieper21%
Keke Topp19%
Jens Stage17%
Senne Lynen16%
Jovan Milošević15%
Karim Coulibaly15%
Marco Grüll15%
Romano Schmid11%
Isaac Schmidt11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Felix Agu8%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Patrice Čović6%
Justin Njinmah6%
Mio Backhaus3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Salim Musah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yukinari Sugawara19%
Victor Okoh Boniface18%
Romano Schmid17%
Olivier Deman12%
Jovan Milošević8%
Samuel Mbangula7%
Cameron Puertas7%
Jens Stage7%
Leonardo Bittencourt6%
Keke Topp5%
Marco Grüll3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Justin Njinmah0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Salim Musah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jens Stage17%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Cameron Puertas7%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Marco Grüll3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Olivier Deman0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keke Topp0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Jovan Milošević0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Werder Bremen's squad is €117m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€119m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Werder Bremen's attack is €49m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€50m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Werder Bremen's midfield is €28m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€28m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Werder Bremen's defence is €40m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€41m vs €1m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Ingolstadt