Werder Bremen’s recent slump, with four straight defeats and a 1-4 loss to SC Freiburg, clashes with RB Leipzig’s winning streak and a 3-0 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model predicts an away win with a 61% chance, a draw 22%, and a home win 17%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.2% probability. Werder’s home form shows only 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger opponents, while Leipzig’s away form boasts 2.0 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.2%), and Home under 1.5 HT goals (91.5%). Each selection carries its own probability, with edges noted where available.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Werder Bremen win
17.5%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.09
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.32
Marathonbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.23
Draw
22.5%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 4.04
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.33
1xBet
4.32
Marathonbet
4.25
Dafabet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
RB Leipzig win
60.0%
Avg Implied 53.5% · @ 1.76
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Werder Bremen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.07
1.67
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.17
0.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.54
1.25
1.50
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.33
2.38
1.19
1.71
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.30
1.00
2.58
0.67
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.13-0.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 5.53+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.47-3.5%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.63+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 2.18-5.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.69+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.29
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Under
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Both teams to score
Yes
58.1%
@ 1.46-5.7%
No
41.9%
@ 2.57+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
No
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
William Hil
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 7.78+4.5%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.91+4.1%
0-2
9.4%@ 10.33+4.9%
0-1
8.1%@ 10.19+3.5%
1-3
6.9%@ 11.05+2.7%
0-3
6.5%@ 14.35+3.3%
0-0
5.3%@ 17.75+2.7%
2-2
5.2%@ 10.87+1.0%
Werder Bremen goals ↓
RB Leipzig goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
8.1%
9.4%
6.5%
3.4%
1
3.6%
10%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.4%
5.0%
5.2%
3.6%
1.9%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Werder Bremen goals (down), columns = RB Leipzig goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Werder Bremen is 0.97 points worse than RB Leipzig in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Werder Bremen is 0.85 goals worse than RB Leipzig in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Werder Bremen is 0.38 goals worse than RB Leipzig in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Werder Bremen is 2.7 percentage points worse than RB Leipzig in terms of average possession (51% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Werder Bremen
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.1 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RB Leipzig
For 4.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.7 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Werder Bremen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.5
10.4
4.5
4.6
4.3
20.5
21.0
20.1
vs Stronger (11)
10.0
8.2
11.5
3.9
3.8
4.0
17.9
19.2
16.8
vs Similar (39)
9.3
8.6
10.1
4.6
4.8
4.4
21.3
21.4
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
52%
64%
66%
64%
68%
44%
48%
40%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
34%
36%
32%
56%
52%
60%
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
9.9
3.4
3.4
3.4
19.9
19.9
19.9
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
11.5
10.0
3.3
2.5
5.0
18.0
14.0
26.0
vs Similar (8)
11.4
11.2
11.7
3.9
4.0
3.7
22.1
22.0
22.3
vs Weaker (39)
10.1
10.6
9.7
3.3
3.4
3.3
19.6
20.0
19.2
% over line
58%
54%
62%
50%
42%
58%
36%
42%
29%
% under line
42%
46%
38%
50%
58%
42%
64%
58%
71%
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.8%
@ 1.81-9.6%
Under 9.5
58.2%
@ 1.92+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.7%
@ 1.92+4.2%
Under 3.5
47.3%
@ 1.82-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
35.1%
Under 21.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Werder Bremen or Draw
46.3%
Avg Implied 46.2% · @ 2.04
Edge
+0.1%
18%
22%
60%
covers Werder Bremen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Werder Bremen or RB Leipzig
76.0%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.22
Edge
-1.2%
18%
22%
60%
covers Werder Bremen + RB Leipzig
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Draw or RB Leipzig
77.7%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.23
Edge
+1.1%
18%
22%
60%
covers Draw + RB Leipzig
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
@ 1.29-2.0%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.31+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
@ 2.47-4.2%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.51+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
@ 5.74-4.2%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
Superbet
5.65
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Werder Bremen over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 13.05-3.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
@ 1.09+0.4%
Under
14.3%
@ 6.29-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.00
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
@ 1.54-3.0%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.39+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.40
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5
Over
30.8%
@ 2.67-4.2%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.44+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.67
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.44
RB Leipzig over/under 3.5
Over
13.3%
@ 5.32-4.2%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.13+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Werder Bremen, so a minus line means Werder Bremen give that many goals of a start and RB Leipzig receive them. At -1, Werder Bremen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Werder Bremen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Werder Bremen)
Werder Bremen -2
2.9%
@ 18.60-2.0%
Draw -2
6.3%
@ 11.20-1.9%
RB Leipzig +2
90.8%
@ 1.06+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
15.00
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Werder Bremen)
Werder Bremen -1
9.2%
@ 8.24-1.7%
Draw -1
13.1%
@ 5.90-2.2%
RB Leipzig +1
77.7%
@ 1.22+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Werder Bremen)
Werder Bremen +1
46.3%
@ 2.02+1.9%
Draw +1
21.8%
@ 3.83-1.6%
RB Leipzig -1
31.9%
@ 2.79-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Handicap +2 (Werder Bremen)
Werder Bremen +2
68.1%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Draw +2
16.7%
@ 5.03-1.2%
RB Leipzig -2
15.2%
@ 5.28-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Werder Bremen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.06
0.25
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.35
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.2%
@ 1.23-4.5%
Under 0.5
28.8%
@ 3.83+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.15-9.1%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.67+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.29
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.16
Unibet
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 4.62-6.7%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.17+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.1%
@ 2.12-5.8%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.66+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.8%
@ 6.75-4.9%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.07+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 17.75-4.0%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.8%
@ 1.58-5.2%
Under
46.2%
@ 2.28+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.5%
@ 3.75-10.1%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.23+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 9.30-5.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Werder Bremen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.80
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.88
0.92
0.75
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.31
0.94
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.65
1.58
0.50
1.09
0.82
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.13-3.2%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 5.41+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Under
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.9%
@ 1.68-8.2%
Under 1.5
52.1%
@ 2.14+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.12
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
@ 3.09-9.9%
Under 2.5
79.6%
@ 1.34+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
@ 1.78-4.9%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.95+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.90
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.5%
@ 4.79-5.8%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.15+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 12.62-5.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.7%
@ 1.38-4.6%
Under
37.3%
@ 2.85+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.7%
@ 2.72-7.4%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.41+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.9%
@ 6.47-6.4%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.08+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.70
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Under 7.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
Under 6.5
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.01
+3.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+6.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+4.9%
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+3.9%
Under 5.5
90.1%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+4.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
86.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+5.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+6.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
85.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
+0.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+10.1%
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
-0.0%
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
1.34
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+11.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.34
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+9.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.13
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-3.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+5.2%
Draw or Away
77.7%
1.23
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+1.1%
Away +1 handicap
77.7%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+4.0%
Home or Away
76.0%
1.22
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
-1.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.3%
1.41
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
+7.4%
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
-
-
+6.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-4.5%
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
1.59
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
+11.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Werder Bremen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jens Stage31%
Jovan Milošević23%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Samuel Mbangula11%
Marco Grüll9%
Patrice Čović6%
Olivier Deman6%
Isaac Schmidt5%
Keke Topp5%
Karim Coulibaly4%
Cameron Puertas4%
Marco Friedl3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Felix Agu0%
Yukinari Sugawara0%
Senne Lynen0%
Victor Okoh Boniface0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Stark40%
Leonardo Bittencourt33%
Marco Friedl32%
Julián Malatini27%
Olivier Deman24%
Cameron Puertas21%
Amos Pieper21%
Keke Topp19%
Jens Stage17%
Senne Lynen16%
Jovan Milošević15%
Karim Coulibaly15%
Marco Grüll15%
Romano Schmid11%
Isaac Schmidt11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Felix Agu8%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Patrice Čović6%
Justin Njinmah6%
Mio Backhaus3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Salim Musah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yukinari Sugawara19%
Victor Okoh Boniface18%
Romano Schmid17%
Olivier Deman12%
Jovan Milošević8%
Samuel Mbangula7%
Cameron Puertas7%
Jens Stage7%
Leonardo Bittencourt6%
Keke Topp5%
Marco Grüll3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Justin Njinmah0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Salim Musah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jens Stage17%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Cameron Puertas7%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Marco Grüll3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Olivier Deman0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keke Topp0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Jovan Milošević0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
RB Leipzig · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Diomande31%
Christoph Baumgartner30%
Rômulo28%
Assan Ouédraogo20%
Antonio Nusa14%
Brajan Gruda14%
Johan Bakayoko14%
Xaver Schlager10%
Conrad Harder9%
David Raum9%
Willi Orbán8%
Ezechiel Banzuzi7%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Benjamin Henrichs6%
Ridle Baku6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Castello Lukeba3%
Loïs Openda0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Nicolas Seiwald0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christoph Baumgartner30%
David Raum21%
Xaver Schlager20%
Ezechiel Banzuzi18%
Ridle Baku14%
Max Finkgräfe14%
Rômulo12%
Willi Orbán11%
Castello Lukeba10%
Conrad Harder9%
Nicolas Seiwald8%
Brajan Gruda7%
Maarten Vandevoordt6%
Yan Diomande6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Johan Bakayoko5%
Péter Gulácsi4%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Antonio Nusa0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Assan Ouédraogo0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Raum24%
Brajan Gruda21%
Yan Diomande19%
Christoph Baumgartner19%
Assan Ouédraogo15%
Lukas Klostermann14%
Rômulo12%
Conrad Harder12%
Ridle Baku11%
Antonio Nusa11%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Willi Orbán5%
Nicolas Seiwald5%
Ezechiel Banzuzi4%
Castello Lukeba3%
Xaver Schlager3%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Johan Bakayoko0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoph Baumgartner38%
Loïs Openda33%
Yan Diomande22%
Rômulo22%
Antonio Nusa20%
Conrad Harder16%
Brajan Gruda14%
Assan Ouédraogo10%
Johan Bakayoko9%
David Raum3%
Ridle Baku3%
Nicolas Seiwald3%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Xaver Schlager0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Willi Orbán0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Castello Lukeba0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Ezechiel Banzuzi0%
Max Finkgräfe0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Werder Bremen's squad is €387m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€119m vs €506m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Werder Bremen's attack is €162m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€50m vs €212m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Werder Bremen's midfield is €81m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€28m vs €109m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Werder Bremen's defence is €144m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€41m vs €185m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart