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West Ham vs Leeds Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
West Ham
West Ham
Vs
32%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Leeds
Leeds
England: Premier League
Referee: A Taylor
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives West Ham a 32% win probability against Leeds in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-24, with 29% for the draw and 39% for Leeds. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (74%).

Results analysis

West Ham finished 3-0 against Leeds (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 32% home win, 29% draw and 39% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (74%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

West Ham win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.70
Edge
-23.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.11
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leeds win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied 21.7% · @ 4.35
Edge
+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

West HamWest Ham

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L10W11D02L40W00D21W03L01L13LA·LIV28/02A·FUL04/03H·MAN14/03A·AST22/03H·WOL10/04A·CRY20/04H·EVE25/04A·BRE02/05H·ARS10/05A·NEW17/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.631.471.331.001.93
vs Stronger (10)0.902.200.801.601.002.80
vs Similar (18)1.331.331.561.331.111.33
vs Weaker (2)2.001.504.000.000.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LeedsLeeds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D00D21W30W22D31W11D10WH·MAN28/02H·SUN03/03A·CRY15/03H·BRE21/03A·MAN13/04H·WOL18/04A·BOU22/04H·BUR01/05A·TOT11/05H·BRI17/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.401.671.131.131.67
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.402.001.501.50
vs Similar (20)1.301.301.670.781.001.73
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.8%
@ 1.57-13.0%
Under 2.5
53.2%
@ 2.34+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.6%
West Ham goals ↓
Leeds goals →
01234
09.1%9.3%7.1%3.2%1.1%
18.1%14%8.5%3.8%1.3%
25.6%7.6%5.1%2.3%0.8%
32.2%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Ham goals (down), columns = Leeds goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
West Ham is 0.21 points worse than Leeds in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
West Ham is 0.08 goals worse than Leeds in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
West Ham is 0.24 goals worse than Leeds in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
West Ham is 3.7 percentage points worse than Leeds in terms of average possession (42% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

West HamWest Ham

For 4.2 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

16019436234645266115575101078710712161215A·NEWH·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

7031343134122212242224747341464A·NEWH·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.6

⚠️ Fouls

26011814121289111213117731451214111219262020251810192623A·NEWH·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

LeedsLeeds

For 4.7 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.3

🚩 Corners

160782145112564116238925315165131115811118H·BRIA·TOTH·BURA·BOUH·WOLA·MANH·BREA·CRYH·SUNH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

7011343321242221331473362443H·BRIA·TOTH·BURA·BOUH·WOLA·MANH·BREA·CRYH·SUNH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.7

⚠️ Fouls

3409771212111069171512691112151910816192316262715233418H·BRIA·TOTH·BURA·BOUH·WOLA·MANH·BREA·CRYH·SUNH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

West HamWest Ham

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.210.33.73.83.622.022.121.9
vs Stronger (15)10.410.010.73.13.23.022.422.222.6
vs Similar (31)10.610.710.54.04.13.921.622.121.2
vs Weaker (4)7.57.08.03.53.53.523.522.524.5
% over line58%50%65%52%50%54%48%46%50%
% under line42%50%35%48%50%46%52%54%50%
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LeedsLeeds

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.39.88.93.33.23.421.320.921.8
vs Stronger (10)9.39.88.83.72.84.621.820.822.8
vs Similar (27)9.69.59.63.33.62.821.321.621.0
vs Weaker (13)8.910.37.73.12.53.621.019.322.4
% over line46%52%40%40%40%40%48%48%48%
% under line54%48%60%60%60%60%52%52%52%
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.2
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.1
Manchester City
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.3
Wolves
9.3
Crystal Palace
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Brentford
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Leeds
3.3
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.0
Wolves
24.0
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.4
Chelsea
23.2
Tottenham
22.6
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Brighton
21.9
Arsenal
21.8
Newcastle
21.7
Everton
21.4
Leeds
21.3
Crystal Palace
20.9
Manchester City
20.7
Liverpool
20.7
Burnley
20.6
Fulham
20.6
Brentford
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.4%
Under 21.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
West Ham's squad is €76m more valuable than Leeds's (€449m vs €373m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
West Ham's attack is €32m more valuable than Leeds's (€174m vs €142m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
West Ham's midfield is €13m more valuable than Leeds's (€112m vs €98m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
West Ham's defence is €31m more valuable than Leeds's (€164m vs €134m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

West Ham vs Leeds · H/A from WHU
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25ALeeds Vs WHU2-1
21/05/23HWHU Vs Leeds3-1
04/01/23ALeeds Vs WHU2-2
16/01/22HWHU Vs Leeds2-3
25/09/21ALeeds Vs WHU1-2
08/03/21HWHU Vs Leeds2-0
11/12/20ALeeds Vs WHU1-2

West HamWest Ham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ANewcastle Vs WHU3-1
10/05/26HWHU Vs Arsenal0-1
02/05/26ABrentford Vs WHU3-0
25/04/26HWHU Vs Everton2-1
20/04/26ACrystal Palace Vs WHU0-0
10/04/26HWHU Vs Wolves4-0
22/03/26AAston Villa Vs WHU2-0
14/03/26HWHU Vs Manchester City1-1
04/03/26AFulham Vs WHU0-1
28/02/26ALiverpool Vs WHU5-2

LeedsLeeds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HLEE Vs Brighton1-0
11/05/26ATottenham Vs LEE1-1
01/05/26HLEE Vs Burnley3-1
22/04/26ABournemouth Vs LEE2-2
18/04/26HLEE Vs Wolves3-0
13/04/26AManchester United Vs LEE1-2
21/03/26HLEE Vs Brentford0-0
15/03/26ACrystal Palace Vs LEE0-0
03/03/26HLEE Vs Sunderland0-1
28/02/26HLEE Vs Manchester City0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

West Ham
West Ham
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.04
HomeDDWWL1.04
AwayWLDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.802.832.77
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.201.291.12
Conceded1.601.541.65
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet18%12%23%
Corners10.2810.2110.35
Cards3.683.793.58
Leeds
Leeds
England: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDW1.50
HomeLDWWW1.84
AwayDDWDD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%24%
AVG goals2.782.842.72
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %38%40%36%
Scored1.521.841.20
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners9.349.768.92
Cards3.303.203.40

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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