West Ham vs Liverpool Result & Analysis

West Ham’s recent draw against Watford leaves them still vulnerable at home, while Liverpool’s away form shows they score heavily and concede little on the road, making them the clear favourite. The model rates a Liverpool win at 62%, a draw at 22% and a West Ham win at 15%, so the predicted outcome is an away victory. The expected total of goals is 3.0, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. West Ham averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded at home against stronger opponents, whereas Liverpool averages 2.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded away against weaker sides. The suggested selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 92.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 92.0%, Under 10.5 corners at 86.1%, Under 23.5 fouls at 84.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.1%, Over 1.5 at 81.3%, Under 9.5 corners at 77.4% and Over 2.5 cards at 72.5%. The model’s edge is highlighted only where an edge percentage is provided.

The pre-match favourite, Liverpool, was tipped to win with a 62% probability, yet West Ham pulled off a 3-2 home victory, proving the model’s pick wrong. West Ham’s recent form, a draw in their last match, was a faint hint of resilience, while Liverpool’s run of draws and a loss had left them vulnerable on the road. The model’s selection of “Under 25.5 fouls” at 92.5% hit, “Under 11.5 corners” at 92.0% hit, “Under 10.5 corners” at 86.1% hit, “Under 23.5 fouls” at 84.6% hit, “Under 5.5 cards” at 82.1% hit, “Over 1.5” at 81.3% hit, and “Under 9.5 corners” at 77.4% hit all proved accurate, while “Over 2.5 cards” at 72.5% missed. The match confirmed that the model’s predictions on total fouls, corners, cards and the over-1.5 goal marker were largely correct, even as the overall outcome defied expectations.