PythiaFootballBETA
West Ham’s recent win over Southampton gives them a slight lift, yet the model still favours a Manchester United victory. The predicted outcome is an away win, with a 51% chance, compared to 24% for a home win and 25% for a draw. The average goal tally sits at 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance, distinct from the total-goals expectation.
West Ham, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Manchester United, on the road, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded against comparable teams. These figures hint at a tight contest where United’s defensive frailty could be decisive.
The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls (95.2%), Under 5.5 cards (89.6%), Under 23.5 fouls (89.2%), Under 21.5 fouls (78.9%), Under 4.5 cards (78.3%), and Under 11.5 corners (70.5%). The only miss is Over 1.5 (82.5%). Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as they are not provided.
The upset came as West Ham edged Manchester United 1-0, a home win that snapped the pre-match favourite’s run. The model had tipped an away win at 51 percent, but that call was wrong. The final score was 1-0, giving West Ham the victory. The model’s selection of Under 25.5 fouls hit, as did Under 5.5 cards, Under 23.5 fouls, Under 21.5 fouls, Under 4.5 cards and Under 11.5 corners, all at probabilities of 95.2 percent, 89.6 percent, 89.2 percent, 78.9 percent, 78.3 percent and 70.5 percent respectively. The only miss was Over 1.5, which came in at 82.5 percent. West Ham’s recent form, coming off a win, helped them secure the surprise result.
West Ham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.37 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.48 | 1.38 | 1.60 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.10 | 2.07 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.86 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.80 | 0.70 | 2.33 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Manchester United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 11% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
West HamManchester UnitedWest Ham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 18.6 | 17.4 | 19.8 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 10.2 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (34) | 11.0 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 20.4 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 7.8 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| % over line | 56% | 40% | 72% | 32% | 36% | 28% | 26% | 16% | 36% |
| % under line | 44% | 60% | 28% | 68% | 64% | 72% | 74% | 84% | 64% |
Manchester United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 20.3 | 19.6 | 21.0 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 6.2 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 19.8 | 22.5 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (30) | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 20.1 | 19.4 | 20.9 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 10.7 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 67% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 36% | 29% | 42% |
| % under line | 40% | 33% | 46% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 64% | 71% | 58% |
West Ham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.27 | 0.87 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+51pp vs league) | |||||
West Ham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 89.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 21.5 fouls | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/01/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/09/21 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/21 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/12/20 | H | 1-3 |
West Ham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 29/04/23 | A | 4-3 | |
| 26/04/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 23/04/23 | A | 0-4 | |
| 20/04/23 | H | 4-1 | |
| 16/04/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/04/23 | H | 1-5 | |
| 02/04/23 | H | 1-0 |
Manchester United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/04/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/04/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/04/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/04/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/04/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/03/23 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Manchester City | 38 | 89 | 74% | 2.3 | 94 | 33 | +61 | 3.3 | 82% | 66% | 42% | 8.9 | 50% | 3.3 | 42% | 19.7 | 29% | 1326 | 635 | 160 | 531 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 66% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 38 | 84 | 68% | 2.2 | 88 | 43 | +45 | 3.4 | 84% | 68% | 53% | 9.6 | 45% | 3.5 | 39% | 21.8 | 50% | 1406 | 608 | 290 | 508 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 75 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 43 | +15 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.4 | 47% | 19.3 | 26% | 929 | 432 | 236 | 261 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 4 |  Newcastle | 38 | 71 | 50% | 1.9 | 68 | 33 | +35 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 29% | 11.4 | 76% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.7 | 42% | 568 | 234 | 124 | 210 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 67 | 50% | 1.8 | 75 | 47 | +28 | 3.2 | 74% | 61% | 37% | 9.8 | 45% | 3.1 | 42% | 19.7 | 39% | 980 | 518 | 201 | 260 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 61% |
| 6 |  Brighton | 38 | 62 | 47% | 1.6 | 72 | 53 | +19 | 3.3 | 79% | 66% | 45% | 9.7 | 55% | 4.0 | 53% | 22.4 | 58% | 620 | 190 | 180 | 249 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 60% |
| 7 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 61 | 47% | 1.6 | 51 | 46 | +5 | 2.6 | 79% | 47% | 21% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.3 | 55% | 24.1 | 68% | 536 | 220 | 160 | 156 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 38 | 60 | 47% | 1.6 | 70 | 63 | +7 | 3.5 | 84% | 61% | 47% | 10.5 | 63% | 4.1 | 53% | 21.1 | 39% | 920 | 250 | 282 | 388 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 9 |  Brentford | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 58 | 46 | +12 | 2.7 | 82% | 45% | 32% | 9.9 | 55% | 3.1 | 45% | 20.2 | 29% | 565 | 228 | 128 | 209 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 43% |
| 10 |  Fulham | 38 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 55 | 53 | +2 | 2.8 | 74% | 66% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 3.7 | 47% | 21.8 | 42% | 329 | 178 | 28 | 123 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 11 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 2.3 | 68% | 39% | 18% | 9.6 | 37% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.6 | 66% | 505 | 229 | 93 | 182 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Chelsea | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 2.2 | 66% | 42% | 21% | 10.3 | 55% | 3.9 | 58% | 22.7 | 50% | 1407 | 614 | 278 | 514 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 59% |
| 13 |  Wolves | 38 | 41 | 29% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.3 | 71% | 39% | 13% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.3 | 61% | 23.1 | 61% | 311 | 86 | 111 | 115 | 0.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | West Ham | 38 | 40 | 29% | 1.1 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 2.6 | 76% | 39% | 26% | 10.6 | 53% | 2.6 | 26% | 18.1 | 21% | 274 | 84 | 48 | 141 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 39 | 29% | 1.0 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 2.8 | 74% | 47% | 32% | 10.9 | 66% | 3.1 | 34% | 20.2 | 32% | 573 | 285 | 106 | 182 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 41% |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 38 | 24% | 1.0 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 2.8 | 79% | 45% | 34% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.9 | 61% | 22.6 | 61% | 551 | 263 | 52 | 236 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 37% |
| 17 |  Everton | 38 | 36 | 21% | 0.9 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 2.4 | 74% | 42% | 21% | 10.9 | 61% | 4.2 | 66% | 21.0 | 42% | 459 | 174 | 162 | 123 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 42% |
| 18 |  Leicester | 38 | 34 | 24% | 0.9 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 3.1 | 79% | 63% | 34% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.2 | 39% | 21.6 | 58% | 69 | 20 | 13 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 19 |  Leeds | 38 | 31 | 18% | 0.8 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 3.3 | 76% | 66% | 45% | 10.1 | 55% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.1 | 58% | 427 | 166 | 98 | 163 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 48% |
| 20 |  Southampton | 38 | 25 | 16% | 0.7 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 2.9 | 66% | 53% | 34% | 9.6 | 50% | 3.6 | 42% | 21.8 | 45% | 205 | 72 | 53 | 79 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 44% |