This highly anticipated match between Wexford and Bray Wanderers in the Ireland: First Division is finely balanced, with both teams having recent form that could swing either way. Wexford comes off a defeat to UCD, while Bray Wanderers are riding high after a 5-0 win over Finn Harps. The model predicts a home win for Wexford, with a probability of 36%, closely followed by a 36% chance of an away win and 28% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the single most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.1%.
Wexford's home form is characterized by an average of 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Bray Wanderers' away form shows an average of 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 78%. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 36%. The model also suggests a Wexford win, occurring with a probability of 36%, and an Over 1.5 goal margin, occurring with a probability of 78%.
Results analysis
Wexford's win extends their run of inconsistent form, having come off a defeat and sitting on a last five of LWLWD. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home win, as predicted by the model, which correctly identified Wexford as the favourite with a 36% chance of success. The model's selection of a home win was correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 78% probability of occurrence. The model's call on the most likely total goals of 2, however, MISSED, with only a 25% chance of this outcome. The most likely scores suggested by the model were 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, all of which MISSED.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wexford win✓ Hit
36.0%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.67
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Dafabet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Superbet
2.72
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.41
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.69
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.46
Bray Wanderers win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.28
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.42
Dafabet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
888Sport
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wexford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.40
1.07
1.50
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.70
0.40
1.60
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
1.25
1.44
1.44
1.09
1.09
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.12
1.47
1.62
1.62
vs Stronger (14)
1.71
1.43
1.88
1.38
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
2.08
1.46
2.29
1.29
1.83
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
2.33
2.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.19+1.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 3.96-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.38
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.65-3.1%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 2.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.71
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Under
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Unibet
2.14
SBO
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.57-4.9%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.42+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
@ 1.55-1.3%
No
42.2%
@ 2.23+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
No
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.20+6.2%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.16+3.1%
2-1 ✓
8.3%@ 9.15+3.6%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.79+2.5%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.60+2.9%
0-0
7.3%@ 12.04+3.8%
0-2
6.0%@ 11.51+2.3%
2-0
5.9%@ 13.99+2.9%
Wexford goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
7.4%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.3%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.3%
5.8%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.8%
3.9%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wexford goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Wexford is 0.29 points worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Wexford is 1.43 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Wexford and Bray Wanderers are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wexford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.50
0.86
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.40
0.80
0.56
1.00
0.27
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.82
0.76
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
0.86
0.86
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wexford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.57
0.64
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.45
0.89
0.44
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.92
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.57
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.50
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.62
1.43
0.43
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+1.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Finn Harps