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Wexford vs Finn Harps Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Wexford
Wexford
Vs
54%
23%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Wexford are tipped to win this encounter, the model’s favourite result, with a 55% chance of a home victory. The match is expected to see about three goals in total, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.6% probability. Wexford’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Finn Harps, playing away against stronger teams, average only 0.5 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 55% home win, 25% draw, and 20% away win.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Under 5.5 (92.0%), Home +2 handicap (92.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.9%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.7%). Each pick is listed with its exact percentage. Recent form hints at a struggle for Finn Harps after five straight defeats, while Wexford have slipped after two consecutive losses, but the odds still favour a home win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Wexford win
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

WexfordWexford

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W02L22D21W01L21W14L02L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.571.071.641.121.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.902.000.501.751.172.17
vs Weaker (20)1.201.351.301.601.101.10
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D34L01L12L03L05L05L13L45LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.031.071.670.932.40
vs Stronger (14)1.002.291.001.861.002.71
vs Similar (16)1.001.811.121.500.882.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
6.6%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
5.1%
Wexford goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
04.5%3.6%2.9%1.3%0.4%
16.3%10%6.0%2.6%0.8%
27.4%9.6%6.2%2.7%0.9%
35.1%6.6%4.2%1.8%0.6%
42.6%3.4%2.2%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wexford goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Wexford is 1.00 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Wexford is 0.14 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Wexford is 1.57 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 3.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wexford or Draw
77.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Wexford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wexford or Finn Harps
76.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Wexford + Finn Harps
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Finn Harps
46.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Draw + Finn Harps
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wexford over/under 0.5
Over
87.2%
Under
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 3.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Wexford, so a minus line means Wexford give that many goals of a start and Finn Harps receive them. At -1, Wexford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wexford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wexford)
Wexford -2
16.2%
Draw -2
16.6%
Finn Harps +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wexford)
Wexford -1
32.8%
Draw -1
21.2%
Finn Harps +1
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wexford)
Wexford +1
77.1%
Draw +1
13.0%
Finn Harps -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wexford)
Wexford +2
90.1%
Draw +2
6.6%
Finn Harps -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

WexfordWexford

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D11D10W01L21W02L01L00DH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.501.000.250.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.900.500.750.171.00
vs Weaker (20)0.400.900.501.100.300.70
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L13L01L12L00D01L02L03L21WA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.330.870.600.93
vs Stronger (14)0.360.640.140.710.570.57
vs Similar (16)0.561.120.501.000.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
Under 0.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.2%
Under 1.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
Under 2.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

WexfordWexford

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W02L11D11D00D00D12L01L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.570.640.880.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.100.001.001.001.17
vs Weaker (20)0.800.450.800.500.800.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W21W00D00D03L04L03L10W24LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.130.730.800.331.47
vs Stronger (14)0.641.640.861.140.432.14
vs Similar (16)0.440.690.620.500.250.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.0%
Under 0.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.8%
Under 2.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.0%-------
Under 7.597.9%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals97.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.8%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals94.9%-------
Under 6.594.6%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals91.4%-------
Home +2 handicap90.1%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals89.6%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals88.0%-------
Under 5.587.7%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.9%-------
Over 1.585.6%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals85.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.7%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals81.0%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals78.2%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals77.8%-------
Home or Draw77.1%-------
Home +1 handicap77.1%-------
Home or Away76.9%-------
Under 4.575.4%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals73.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.6%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals70.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
WEX wins
2
Draws
2
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Wexford vs Finn Harps · H/A from WEX
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/25AFinn Harps Vs WEX1-3
01/08/25HWEX Vs Finn Harps2-1
13/06/25AFinn Harps Vs WEX1-1
11/04/25HWEX Vs Finn Harps2-2
14/10/24AFinn Harps Vs WEX1-3
09/08/24HWEX Vs Finn Harps2-0
31/05/24AFinn Harps Vs WEX1-0
15/03/24HWEX Vs Finn Harps1-2

WexfordWexford

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ACork City Vs WEX2-0
21/08/26HWEX Vs Athlone Town0-2
07/08/26AUCD Vs WEX4-1
03/08/26HWEX Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
31/07/26ACobh Ramblers Vs WEX1-0
25/07/26ALongford Town Vs WEX1-2
10/07/26HWEX Vs Kerry2-2
17/10/25HWEX Vs Treaty United0-2
10/10/25AKerry Vs WEX0-2
05/10/25HWEX Vs UCD0-3

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AUCD Vs FH5-4
21/08/26HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers1-3
07/08/26ABray Wanderers Vs FH5-0
03/08/26ALongford Town Vs FH5-0
31/07/26HFH Vs Cork City0-3
24/07/26AKerry Vs FH2-1
10/07/26HFH Vs Treaty United0-1
17/10/25HFH Vs UCD3-4
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
10/10/25ADundalk Vs FH3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.24
HomeLLDWL1.32
AwayWWLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.602.442.76
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %50%44%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.161.241.08
Conceded1.441.201.68
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.90
HomeDLLLL1.00
AwayLLLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%25%15%
AVG goals3.042.833.23
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.201.251.15
Conceded1.841.582.08
BTTS62%58%65%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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