The encounter between Wexford and Long Town is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 38% for a Wexford victory, 27% for a draw, and 35% for Long Town. The average goal tally sits at 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Wexford, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Long Town on the road averages 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Under 5.5 (92.0%), Home +2 handicap (82.8%), Under 4.5 (82.1%), and Away under 2.5 goals (82.0%). Wexford’s recent form shows three straight losses before a win, while Long Town comes off a draw. The balance of probabilities leaves the outcome uncertain, though the model’s pick remains a Wexford win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wexford win
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wexford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.64
1.12
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
2.00
0.50
1.75
1.17
2.17
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.35
1.30
1.60
1.10
1.10
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.07
1.29
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.29
2.30
1.00
1.09
1.55
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Wexford goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.4%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.7%
12%
8.3%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.9%
8.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wexford goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Wexford is 0.86 points worse than Longford Town in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Wexford is 1.57 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Wexford is 0.29 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wexford or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Wexford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wexford or Longford Town
73.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Wexford + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Longford Town
62.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wexford over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wexford, so a minus line means Wexford give that many goals of a start and Longford Town receive them. At -1, Wexford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wexford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wexford)
Wexford -2
7.3%
Draw -2
11.5%
Longford Town +2
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wexford)
Wexford -1
18.8%
Draw -1
19.0%
Longford Town +1
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wexford)
Wexford +1
64.5%
Draw +1
18.3%
Longford Town -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wexford)
Wexford +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.8%
Longford Town -2
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wexford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.90
0.50
0.75
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.40
0.90
0.50
1.10
0.30
0.70
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wexford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.45
0.80
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Longford Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.14
0.79
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.76
1.30
0.50
0.55
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
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Kerry
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Finn Harps