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Wexford vs UCD Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 18:45
Wexford
Wexford
Vs
39%
28%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest is finely balanced, yet the model points to a Wexford victory as the most probable outcome. Home win odds sit at 39%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 33%. The average goal tally is 2.8, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 25% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Wexford, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while UCD, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Under 4.5 (85.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.1%) and Home +2 handicap (84.6%). Wexford’s recent form shows a three-game losing streak, while UCD comes off a win, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Wexford win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCD win
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

WexfordWexford

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W02L22D21W01L21W14L02L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.571.071.641.121.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.902.000.501.751.172.17
vs Weaker (20)1.201.351.301.601.101.10
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-643W01L23L06L52W00D12L41W11D54WA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.502.071.471.801.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.221.002.401.002.001.00
vs Weaker (21)1.811.711.901.701.731.73
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.4%
Under 2.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
Wexford goals ↓
UCD goals →
01234
07.4%7.1%5.5%2.4%0.8%
17.8%13%8.0%3.5%1.2%
26.5%8.7%5.8%2.5%0.8%
33.1%4.2%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.1%1.5%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wexford goals (down), columns = UCD goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Wexford is 0.57 points worse than UCD in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Wexford is 1.29 goals worse than UCD in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Wexford is 0.43 goals better than UCD in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 2.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wexford or Draw
66.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Wexford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wexford or UCD
72.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Wexford + UCD
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or UCD
61.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + UCD
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wexford over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Wexford, so a minus line means Wexford give that many goals of a start and UCD receive them. At -1, Wexford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wexford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wexford)
Wexford -2
7.2%
Draw -2
11.8%
UCD +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wexford)
Wexford -1
19.1%
Draw -1
19.8%
UCD +1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wexford)
Wexford +1
66.6%
Draw +1
18.0%
UCD -1
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wexford)
Wexford +2
84.6%
Draw +2
10.0%
UCD -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

WexfordWexford

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D11D10W01L21W02L01L00DH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.501.000.250.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.900.500.750.171.00
vs Weaker (20)0.400.900.501.100.300.70
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D11D02L22D00D00D20W10W12LA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.700.730.871.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.561.000.600.750.50
vs Weaker (21)0.860.760.601.001.090.55
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

WexfordWexford

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W02L11D11D00D00D12L01L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.570.640.880.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.100.001.001.001.17
vs Weaker (20)0.800.450.800.500.800.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L12L04L30W00D12L21W01L42WA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.801.330.600.801.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.330.441.400.401.250.50
vs Weaker (21)0.950.951.300.700.641.18
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.2%-------
Under 6.597.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.1%-------
Under 5.593.7%-------
Under 4.585.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.1%-------
Home +2 handicap84.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.2%-------
Away +2 handicap80.9%-------
Over 1.577.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals76.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.5%-------
Home or Away72.2%-------

🎽 13. Player market rates

UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
WEX wins
1
Draws
5
UCD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Wexford vs UCD · H/A from WEX
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AUCD Vs WEX4-1
05/10/25HWEX Vs UCD0-3
08/08/25AUCD Vs WEX1-0
25/04/25HWEX Vs UCD0-1
27/09/24HWEX Vs UCD2-0
02/08/24AUCD Vs WEX1-1
19/04/24HWEX Vs UCD2-3
08/03/24AUCD Vs WEX1-2

WexfordWexford

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ACork City Vs WEX2-0
21/08/26HWEX Vs Athlone Town0-2
07/08/26AUCD Vs WEX4-1
03/08/26HWEX Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
31/07/26ACobh Ramblers Vs WEX1-0
25/07/26ALongford Town Vs WEX1-2
10/07/26HWEX Vs Kerry2-2
17/10/25HWEX Vs Treaty United0-2
10/10/25AKerry Vs WEX0-2
05/10/25HWEX Vs UCD0-3

UCDUCD

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HUCD Vs Finn Harps5-4
21/08/26AKerry Vs UCD1-1
07/08/26HUCD Vs Wexford4-1
03/08/26HUCD Vs Treaty United1-2
31/07/26AAthlone Town Vs UCD0-0
24/07/26HUCD Vs Cork City5-2
10/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs UCD6-0
28/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs UCD3-2
24/10/25HUCD Vs Bray Wanderers0-1
17/10/25AFinn Harps Vs UCD3-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.24
HomeLLDWL1.32
AwayWWLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.602.442.76
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %50%44%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.161.241.08
Conceded1.441.201.68
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners---
Cards---
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.46
HomeLWLWW1.52
AwayWLLDD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.802.762.84
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.421.521.32
Conceded1.381.241.52
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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