Wieczysta Kraków’s recent slump of two straight defeats has left them looking for a revival, while Śląsk Wrocław, fresh from a draw, is eager to break a string of low-scoring outings. The model favours a home win, assigning a 55% chance to the result, with a 22% draw probability and a 23% chance of a Śląsk victory. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to an open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the hosts, with a 9.1% probability. In the home-side data, the Kraków side averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Śląsk averages 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89% and Over 2.5 goals at 71.1%. The predicted outcome is a 2-1 win for Wieczysta Kraków.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with the pre-match favourite, Home win, failing to deliver as the match finished 3-3, a draw. The model had given the home side a 55% chance of triumph, but that call proved wrong. The game’s total goals hit the 3-goal mark, the most likely scoreline, and both suggested picks - Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 - were correct, with probabilities of 89% and 71.1% respectively. Wieczysta Kraków’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had not translated into victory, while Slask Wroclaw, coming off a draw, managed to secure a point. The final result, a 3-3 stalemate, left the model’s prediction on the wrong side of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wieczysta Kraków win✗ Miss
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wieczysta Kraków
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.94
1.44
2.00
1.22
1.89
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.42
1.80
1.00
2.14
1.71
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
1.50
2.25
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
28% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slask Wroclaw
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
1.87
1.13
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.48
1.85
1.15
1.50
1.90
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.25
-
-
2.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Wieczysta Kraków) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.1%
Under 2.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.1%
Under 3.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.9%
Wieczysta Kraków goals ↓
Slask Wroclaw goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.8%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
1
4.9%
9.0%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.7%
6.8%
4.9%
2.3%
0.8%
4
2.6%
3.8%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wieczysta Kraków goals (down), columns = Slask Wroclaw goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Wieczysta Kraków is 0.04 points worse than Slask Wroclaw in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Tychy 71
1.18
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Wieczysta Kraków is 0.08 goals better than Slask Wroclaw in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Stal Mielec
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków is 0.04 goals better than Slask Wroclaw in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wieczysta Kraków
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.56
1.11
0.33
0.78
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.20
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slask Wroclaw
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.70
0.85
0.46
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
-
-
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wieczysta Kraków) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wieczysta Kraków
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.89
0.89
0.89
1.11
0.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.83
0.80
0.80
1.43
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slask Wroclaw
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.78
1.00
0.69
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
-
-
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wieczysta Kraków) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wieczysta Kraków over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wieczysta Kraków · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Piazón25%
Lisandro Semedo25%
Antonio Milić0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Karol Fila0%
Petar Pušić0%
Tobias Christensen0%
Mikkel Maigaard0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Christopher Lungoyi0%
Miguel Villar Miki0%
Ben Lederman0%
Antoni Mikułko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Lederman33%
Lucas Piazón25%
Tobias Christensen25%
Mikkel Maigaard25%
Miguel Villar Miki25%
Antonio Milić0%
Lisandro Semedo0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Karol Fila0%
Petar Pušić0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Christopher Lungoyi0%
Antoni Mikułko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kamil Dankowski33%
Miguel Villar Miki25%
Antonio Milić0%
Lucas Piazón0%
Lisandro Semedo0%
Karol Fila0%
Petar Pušić0%
Tobias Christensen0%
Mikkel Maigaard0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Christopher Lungoyi0%
Ben Lederman0%
Antoni Mikułko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Christensen25%
Antonio Milić0%
Lucas Piazón0%
Lisandro Semedo0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Karol Fila0%
Petar Pušić0%
Mikkel Maigaard0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Christopher Lungoyi0%
Miguel Villar Miki0%
Ben Lederman0%
Antoni Mikułko0%
Slask Wroclaw · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Piotr Samiec-Talar40%
Przemysław Banaszak40%
Eniss Shabani25%
Luka Marjanac20%
Lamine Ba0%
Malaly Dembélé0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Mariusz Malec0%
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Alex Timossi Andersson0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Irodotos Christodoulou0%
Marc Llinares0%
Yegor Matsenko0%
Michał Rosiak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eniss Shabani50%
Michał Rosiak40%
Lamine Ba25%
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz20%
Jorge Yriarte20%
Malaly Dembélé0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Piotr Samiec-Talar0%
Mariusz Malec0%
Alex Timossi Andersson0%
Przemysław Banaszak0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Irodotos Christodoulou0%
Marc Llinares0%
Yegor Matsenko0%
Luka Marjanac0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Piotr Samiec-Talar40%
Michał Mokrzycki33%
Lamine Ba0%
Malaly Dembélé0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Mariusz Malec0%
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Alex Timossi Andersson0%
Przemysław Banaszak0%
Irodotos Christodoulou0%
Marc Llinares0%
Eniss Shabani0%
Yegor Matsenko0%
Michał Rosiak0%
Luka Marjanac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Piotr Samiec-Talar20%
Lamine Ba0%
Malaly Dembélé0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Mariusz Malec0%
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Alex Timossi Andersson0%
Przemysław Banaszak0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Irodotos Christodoulou0%
Marc Llinares0%
Eniss Shabani0%
Yegor Matsenko0%
Michał Rosiak0%
Luka Marjanac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Wieczysta Kraków's squad is €4m more valuable than Slask Wroclaw's (€12m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Wieczysta Kraków's attack is €3m more valuable than Slask Wroclaw's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Wieczysta Kraków's midfield is €2m less valuable than Slask Wroclaw's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Wieczysta Kraków's defence is €3m more valuable than Slask Wroclaw's (€5m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →