Wigan and Leyton Orient are set to clash in League One. Leyton Orient's recent form has been concerning, coming off a 1-2 defeat to Sheffield Weds after a string of draws and losses. Wigan, on the other hand, has struggled at home, with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.79 conceded per match against similar opponents. Leyton Orient's away form is equally concerning, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match against similar opponents.
Home win is the model's pick, with a 39% chance of success. The model suggests a 32% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely outcome being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance.
Wigan's home scoring and conceding statistics indicate a tight match. The model selects Under 3.5 goals with an 83% probability. The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals, with a 83% chance. Wigan has a 39% chance of winning, a 32% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise as Leyton Orient secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had predicted a 41 % chance of a Wigan win, 28 % for a draw and 31 % for an away win; its call was therefore incorrect. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result of an away win. The model’s selections were all accurate: Under 7.5 (99.8 %) hit, Under 6.5 (99.3 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 %) hit, Under 5.5 (97.8 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 %) hit and Home under 3.5 goals (96.9 %) hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wigan win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.11
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.26
888Sport
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.25
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Leyton Orient win✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.46
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
Betano
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wigan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.00
0.77
1.06
1.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.36
1.08
0.75
1.12
1.81
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.25
1.44
0.93
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.39
1.27
1.33
0.69
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
@ 1.33+7.0%
Under 1.5
22.8%
@ 3.11-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Betano
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 2.05+5.9%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.73-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
@ 3.57+3.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
@ 1.26-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Pinnacle
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Under
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Betano
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.81+5.3%
No
43.4%
@ 1.90-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.81
888Sport
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
No
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.92
888Sport
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.83+5.6%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.26+3.6%
1-0
8.4%@ 6.69+1.7%
0-0
7.6%@ 8.33+2.3%
1-2
7.5%@ 11.06+3.5%
2-0
7.1%@ 9.38+2.4%
0-1
6.9%@ 8.89+1.9%
2-2
5.6%@ 13.59+2.3%
Wigan goals ↓
Leyton Orient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.9%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.4%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
8.9%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
3
3.5%
4.4%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wigan goals (down), columns = Leyton Orient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.51
Sheffield Weds
1.73
Stockport
1.69
Oxford
1.62
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Milton Keynes Dons
1.42
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Doncaster
1.30
Blackpool
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Cambridge
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Notts County
1.20
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.11
Wigan is 0.09 points better than Leyton Orient in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.40
Sheffield Weds
1.65
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Oxford
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Milton Keynes Dons
1.36
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Cambridge
1.18
Blackpool
1.17
Notts County
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.06
Stevenage
1.02
Wigan is 0.22 goals worse than Leyton Orient in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.72
Stevenage
1.02
Sheffield Weds
1.04
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.11
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Cambridge
1.46
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.63
Wigan is 0.28 goals better than Leyton Orient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Wigan is 7.0 percentage points worse than Leyton Orient in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wigan
For 6.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leyton Orient
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wigan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.6
11.6
2.9
3.1
2.8
23.2
23.3
23.2
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
4.0
-
4.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (46)
10.8
9.4
12.1
2.9
3.1
2.7
23.1
23.5
22.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
13.0
7.0
3.3
3.5
3.0
27.5
20.0
35.0
% over line
58%
52%
64%
40%
36%
44%
60%
57%
64%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
60%
64%
56%
40%
43%
36%
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.2
4.0
3.6
4.4
23.2
23.7
22.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.8
10.2
9.5
4.1
3.6
4.6
23.5
24.2
22.7
vs Weaker (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
2.3
3.0
2.0
19.3
13.0
22.5
% over line
52%
58%
46%
60%
54%
67%
66%
69%
62%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
40%
46%
33%
34%
31%
38%
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.5%
@ 1.69-6.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
@ 2.06+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.07
Unibet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.1%
Under 21.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wigan or Draw✗ Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.7%
41%
28%
31%
covers Wigan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Wigan or Leyton Orient✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-3.7%
41%
28%
31%
covers Wigan + Leyton Orient
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Draw or Leyton Orient✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.67
Edge
+5.4%
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Leyton Orient
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wigan over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.7%
@ 1.25-5.9%
Under
31.3%
@ 3.67+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.12
Superbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Wigan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.4%
@ 2.22-9.6%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.61+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
BetVictor
1.65
Wigan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 5.03-7.3%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.14+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Wigan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.88-4.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.5%
@ 1.42-2.6%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.66+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
888Sport
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.8%
@ 3.12-4.0%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.32+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.16
Under
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 8.20-3.7%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Leyton Orient over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.88-2.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wigan, so a minus line means Wigan give that many goals of a start and Leyton Orient receive them. At -1, Wigan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wigan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wigan)Actual: Leyton Orient
Wigan -2
5.5%
@ 9.22-4.2%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 6.14-3.2%
Leyton Orient +2
83.1%
@ 1.18+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
7.90
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Away
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Handicap -1 (Wigan)Actual: Leyton Orient
Wigan -1
16.9%
@ 4.12-4.9%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.71-2.5%
Leyton Orient +1
61.4%
@ 1.66+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.82
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Handicap +1 (Wigan)Actual: Leyton Orient
Wigan +1
70.6%
@ 1.30+1.9%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.79-0.6%
Leyton Orient -1
11.3%
@ 7.17-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Handicap +2 (Wigan)Actual: Draw
Wigan +2
88.7%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 9.73-1.3%
Leyton Orient -2
3.1%
@ 19.00-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.20
Away
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wigan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.38
0.31
0.47
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.68
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.94
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.69
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.71
0.67
0.60
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.2%
@ 1.42+0.8%
Under 0.5
33.8%
@ 2.68-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Superbet
2.72
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.98-1.0%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.36+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
Under
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.80-1.5%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Under
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.96-1.8%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.76+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Wigan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.88-4.1%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.10+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Wigan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.83-3.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.3%
@ 2.45+1.4%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.49-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 8.68-1.3%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
8.40
Betano
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 34.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wigan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.62
0.46
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.67
0.42
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.56
0.81
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.68
0.60
0.73
0.31
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.1%
Under 0.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.1%
Under 1.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wigan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wigan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
1.14
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.18
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.2%
1.33
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.39
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Betano
1.28
-3.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wigan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dara Costelloe33%
Jon Mellish0%
Jensen Weir0%
Max Power0%
Joe Walsh0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Connor Barrett0%
James Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Mellish33%
Jensen Weir33%
Max Power33%
James Carragher33%
Archie Harris33%
Dara Costelloe0%
Joe Walsh0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
James Carragher33%
Jon Mellish0%
Jensen Weir0%
Max Power0%
Dara Costelloe0%
Joe Walsh0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Max Power33%
Dara Costelloe33%
Sonny Perkins33%
Jon Mellish0%
Jensen Weir0%
Joe Walsh0%
Connor Barrett0%
James Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
Leyton Orient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tony Springett33%
Yusuf Akhamrich33%
Nicholas Oyekunle33%
Idris El Mizouni25%
Demetri Mitchell25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Jaze Kabia0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Hayden75%
Fin Stevens50%
Tony Springett33%
Theo Archibald25%
Idris El Mizouni25%
Jaze Kabia25%
Demetri Mitchell0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tony Springett33%
Charlie Wellens33%
Jaze Kabia25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Idris El Mizouni0%
Demetri Mitchell0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Wellens33%
Demetri Mitchell25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Idris El Mizouni0%
Jaze Kabia0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Tony Springett0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Wigan's squad is €3m less valuable than Leyton Orient's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Wigan's attack is €2m less valuable than Leyton Orient's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Wigan and Leyton Orient have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Wigan and Leyton Orient have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Stockport
Mansfield
Bradford
Notts County
Oxford
Barnsley
Cambridge
Plymouth
Burton
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Peterboro
Stevenage
Doncaster
Leicester
Wycombe
Reading