Defensive solidity will shape the opening minutes, as Wigan have been conceding only 0.85 goals per game at home against similar opposition, while Stockport have allowed 1.7 goals away. The model predicts an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 35% chance of Stockport triumph, 33% for a Wigan victory and 31% for a draw. The expected total goals is 2.2, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. The match is expected to be tight and low-scoring, with both sides averaging 1.15 and 1.4 goals respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%, edge 5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%, edge 5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%, edge 4%), Under 5.5 (97.3%, edge 6%), and Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%, edge 7%). The model’s selection favours a narrow 1-1 draw, but the data lean towards Stockport securing a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wigan win
33.3%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.98
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.00
Draw
31.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.43
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
1xBet
3.46
Marathonbet
3.46
Stockport win
35.3%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.21
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Dafabet
2.22
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wigan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.47
1.07
0.86
0.94
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.41
1.15
0.85
1.07
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.30
2.07
0.93
1.40
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.83
1.33
2.38
0.88
1.40
1.70
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
1.25
1.71
1.00
1.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.23-8.4%
Under 1.5
33.1%
@ 3.75+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.9%
@ 1.77-14.2%
Under 2.5
61.1%
@ 2.01+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.9%
@ 2.85-13.6%
Under 3.5
81.1%
@ 1.38+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.61-10.6%
No
53.2%
@ 2.17+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
No
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 6.23+7.5%
0-0
11.9%@ 11.13+7.9%
0-1
10.8%@ 8.28+5.4%
1-0
10.3%@ 9.79+5.8%
1-2
7.6%@ 8.22+2.2%
2-1
7.4%@ 10.09+2.9%
0-2
6.9%@ 10.88+2.8%
2-0
6.4%@ 15.21+3.5%
Wigan goals ↓
Stockport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.9%
2.6%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.4%
7.4%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.4%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wigan goals (down), columns = Stockport goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Wigan is 0.48 points worse than Stockport in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Wigan is 0.47 goals worse than Stockport in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Wigan is 0.00 goals better than Stockport in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Wigan is 9.7 percentage points worse than Stockport in terms of average possession (45% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wigan
For 5.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stockport
For 7.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.1 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wigan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.7
11.8
3.1
3.3
2.9
23.5
23.8
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
4.0
-
4.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (45)
10.9
9.6
12.2
3.0
3.3
2.6
23.3
24.0
22.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.3
13.0
10.5
4.5
3.5
5.5
26.7
20.0
30.0
% over line
60%
57%
64%
44%
44%
44%
62%
61%
64%
% under line
40%
43%
36%
56%
56%
56%
38%
39%
36%
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.0
3.1
3.0
3.3
20.9
19.8
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
10.7
10.4
11.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
21.2
20.1
22.4
vs Weaker (24)
9.0
9.4
8.7
3.2
2.9
3.4
20.5
19.5
21.5
% over line
52%
50%
54%
44%
40%
48%
46%
38%
54%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
56%
60%
52%
54%
62%
46%
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.4%
@ 1.68-3.8%
Under 9.5
48.6%
@ 2.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.5%
Under 21.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wigan or Draw
64.7%
Avg Implied 58.0% · @ 1.61
Edge
+6.7%
33%
31%
35%
covers Wigan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Wigan or Stockport
68.6%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.7%
33%
31%
35%
covers Wigan + Stockport
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Stockport
66.7%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-2.0%
33%
31%
35%
covers Draw + Stockport
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
1xBet
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wigan over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
@ 1.30-4.7%
Under
33.2%
@ 3.26+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.26
Marathonbet
3.26
Wigan over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
@ 2.49-7.2%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.49+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.47
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Wigan over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
@ 6.05-5.4%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.10+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Wigan over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 14.75-3.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Stockport over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
@ 1.20-8.6%
Under
31.9%
@ 3.96+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Stockport over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
@ 2.04-14.0%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.71+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.14
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
Stockport over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
@ 4.33-10.6%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.18+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Stockport over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
@ 9.45-7.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.05+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wigan, so a minus line means Wigan give that many goals of a start and Stockport receive them. At -1, Wigan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wigan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wigan)
Wigan -2
4.3%
@ 17.00-1.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 9.50-0.1%
Stockport +2
86.1%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Wigan)
Wigan -1
13.9%
@ 6.24-0.5%
Draw -1
19.4%
@ 4.55-0.2%
Stockport +1
66.7%
@ 1.35+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Handicap +1 (Wigan)
Wigan +1
64.7%
@ 1.62+9.4%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 3.92-2.7%
Stockport -1
15.1%
@ 4.11-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Unibet
1.54
Draw
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Away
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Handicap +2 (Wigan)
Wigan +2
84.9%
@ 1.18+8.8%
Draw +2
10.3%
@ 6.37-3.8%
Stockport -2
4.8%
@ 9.18-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wigan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.36
0.36
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.70
0.38
0.38
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
0.88
0.88
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.34-2.9%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 3.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
10Bet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 2.55-6.2%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.45+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.39-3.8%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.09+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.9%
@ 2.11-4.9%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.65+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Wigan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
@ 6.83-3.6%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Wigan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 19.25-3.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Stockport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.8%
@ 1.88-3.4%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.82+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Stockport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
@ 5.35-6.0%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Stockport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 13.00-5.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wigan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.70
0.77
0.46
0.50
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.20
0.20
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.20-2.7%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 4.14+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Betano
4.20
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.0%
@ 1.96-7.5%
Under 1.5
60.0%
@ 1.78+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 3.98-8.3%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.21+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.2%
@ 1.77-3.9%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.94+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
Wigan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.8%
@ 4.85-6.3%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.14+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Wigan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 13.75-4.4%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Stockport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
@ 1.61-7.0%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.19+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Stockport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
@ 3.87-8.1%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.22+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Stockport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
@ 9.25-6.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
+7.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.5%
Under 4.5
92.3%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+9.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+5.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+10.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
+6.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
-
+6.3%
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
+1.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.21
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+8.3%
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+8.8%
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-
+8.1%
Under 3.5
81.1%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+13.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-2.7%
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
1.40
Unibet
1.49
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
-
+6.0%
Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wigan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finley Burns33%
Archie Harris33%
Jon Mellish25%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
J. Carragher25%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
R. Walsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Power25%
J. Carragher25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Weir0%
Fraser Murray0%
D. Costelloe0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fraser Murray67%
S. Perkins50%
R. Walsh33%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
Stockport
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Mandron67%
Kyle Wootton50%
J. Diamond25%
H. Wood25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
O. Norwood0%
B. Osborn0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
O. Norwood25%
Ryan Glover25%
Jason Adigun25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
Kyle Wootton0%
J. Diamond0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
H. Wood0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Norwood25%
Kyle Wootton25%
Lewis Bate25%
Benoný Breki Andrésson25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
J. Diamond0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
H. Wood0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyle Wootton50%
O. Norwood25%
J. Diamond25%
H. Wood25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Wigan's squad is €3m less valuable than Stockport's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Wigan's attack is €1m less valuable than Stockport's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Wigan and Stockport have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Wigan's defence is €1m less valuable than Stockport's (€3m vs €4m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe